Scotland: Pub Boss Downs Cost Sceptics

The chairman of pub chain JD Wetherspoon, Tim Martin, has told Sky News he does not share the view that price rises are inevitable if Scotland goes it alone.

His comments will be seen as a boost to the Yes campaign of First Minister Alex Salmond after a string of major banks and retailers warned of potential cost increases under independence from the UK.

Asda and John Lewis said on Thursday that sums would inevitably be passed on to the consumer while BP went as far as to say that it opposed independence.

Sky's City Editor Mark Kleinman reported earlier on Friday that major telecoms firms were considering a similar warning on the issue of costs.

But Mr Martin, whose company operates 67 pubs in Scotland, suggested such statements were premature and "greatly exaggerated".

Mr Martin argues independence is no barrier to success

He told Business Presenter Ian King: "It will entirely depend on the policies that Scotland follows.

"We all know that New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland - small populations, extremely successful economies with their own currencies can do very well - so it becomes a question of what are the policies they're going to have."

For example, Britain is a terribly highly taxed country for pubs and if Scotland were  to say we're going to reduce excise duty to European levels, we're going to have the same VAT for pubs and supermarkets - because it's much higher for pubs in Britain at the moment - beer prices will go down".

He added: "Alex and I could be having a pint together in Vincent Square in Glasgow sometime soon".

Mr Martin, who has not taken sides in the referendum debate, spoke out following the release of the company's preliminary results for its last financial year, which showed record sales as a consequence of new pub openings and longer opening hours.

Profit before tax increased by 3.1% to £79.4m.

Mr Martin said the company generated £600.2m in taxes - the equivalent of £662,000 per pub - and employed an extra 3,000 staff.

He has consistently argued that a more favourable tax regime would allow him to invest more in new pubs and the creation of jobs.

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Chancellor Cancels Trip Due to Yes Vote 'Risks'

The Chancellor has cancelled an official trip to Australia because of the potential economic risks of a Scottish Yes vote.

George Osborne and the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney are pulling out of a meeting of the G20 on September 20 and 21.

The decision comes as polls show the Yes and No camps neck and neck ahead of the crucial independence referendum on September 18.

Thee are also growing warnings from businesses over the impact of a Yes vote.

Mark Carney is to return early from Australia for the result

The Bank has confirmed that Mr Carney - who is due to chair a meeting of the financial stability board of bank regulators in Cairns on Wednesday - will now return early to be back in time for the result.

And the Treasury said that Mr Osborne will not now be going to the weekend summit so will be the UK for the outcome of the vote.

"I can confirm that he is not attending," a Treasury spokesman said.

The Bank said that Mr Carney will be represented at the G20 by the deputy governor for financial stability, Sir Jon Cunliffe.

The latest opinion poll on independence suggests the result is on a knife edge, with both side neck and neck.

With less than a week to go, a new survey for Guardian and ICM indicate support for the No campaign is on 51%, while those in favour of Yes is just 2% behind on 49%.

But 17% of those asked said they had still not made up their minds.

Another poll also suggests the Better Together campaign has narrowly edged back into the lead with a 4% gap.

A YouGov survey put No on 52% and Yes on 48%.

The results came as as several independent heavyweights expressed their concerns if Scotland was to vote to become a separate country.

Asda and John Lewis said the increased costs of operating in an independent Scotland would inevitably be passed on to the consumer, leading to higher prices.

But Tim Martin, chairman of JD Wetherspoon, has told Sky News that price rises are not inevitable if Scotland votes for independence.

RBS, which has been based in Scotland since 1727 and employs 11,500 people there, also confirmed it would be moving its headquarters to London if Scotland voted for independence.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), meanwhile, said a vote for independence could have a negative effect on the markets in the short-term because of "uncertainty".

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Scotland: Bank Jobs And Higher Prices Warning

What Happens If Scotland Leaves The Union?

Updated: 2:00pm UK, Tuesday 09 September 2014

Supporters of both sides of the Scotland referendum debate are mounting a final push for votes before the ballot on September 18. Sky News looks at what will happen if Scotland votes Yes to exit the UK:

:: 1.  When would Scotland become independent?

The Scottish Government has set a date 18 months from now, March 24, 2016, for Scotland's independence day.

:: 2. What would happen immediately after a Yes vote?

The first step on the morning after the result comes in would involve the forming of teams from both the Yes and No camps to take part in behind-the-scenes negotiations. SNP leader Alex Salmond has already indicated his deputy Nicola Sturgeon would lead the talks for the Scottish nationalists. It is not yet known who would spearhead the Westminster team.

:: 3. What amendments would there be to the constitution?

The negotiating teams would devise a new constitution for Scotland and dissolve the 1707 Act Of Union.

:: 4. What would happen to the Queen?

The Yes campaign has said Her Majesty would stay as monarch so it would not be surprising if Mr Salmond seeks an audience with the Queen in the days and weeks after the vote.

:: 5. Would Scotland take part in the May 2015 General Election?

Scottish voters would still be able to take part, but their representatives would only potentially serve a 10-month term in office.

:: 6. What currency would Scotland use?

That is still being thrashed out and yet to be decided. The three main Westminster parties - the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats - have ruled out a currency union, although Mr Salmond insists an independent Scotland would keep the pound.

:: 7. How much of the UK national debt would be transferred to Scotland?

This is not yet known, but it is likely to be worked out on a per capita share - based on population.

:: 8. What would happen to Scotland's standing in global affairs?

Scotland would have to negotiate its own entry into the European Union and Nato, and the population would have to decide whether they want to have the euro.

:: 9. What effect would independence have on Scotland's defence force?

The issue of defence is probably one of the most emotive - and uncertain. Scotland is likely to have its own independent defence force, in time, depending on practicalities and finances, for it has its North Sea oil and fishing industries to protect. Scottish nationalists are opposed to having the Trident nuclear deterrent and would want to see it removed from Faslane, on the west coast of Scotland, as soon as possible. However, Nato is fundamentally a nuclear alliance, and if Scotland struggles to become a member of Nato, it is likely to struggle to join the EU too, which would have a big impact on the Scottish economy. There is also the matter of service personnel - some of which will be currently serving in historic English regiments. Any division of troops north and south of the border would take years.

:: 10. What would independence mean in terms of travelling across the Scotland-England border?

An independent Scotland would control its own borders. The SNP would like to see an open border, but Home Secretary Theresa May has already warned she will not allow Scotland to be used as a back door for immigrants getting into England if Scotland adopts a looser immigration policy. So, we could see passport controls on the border between the two countries.

:: 11. Would Scottish citizens need new passports?

A lot depends on whether Scotland joins the EU. Scottish citizens would be entitled to a Scottish passport, but a UK passport would still be valid until it expires. British citizens who were habitual residents in Scotland would be automatically considered Scottish citizens.

:: 12. What would happen to benefits and taxes?

Benefits and taxes will become the responsibility of the new Scottish government. In its white paper on Scotland's independence it says the Scottish Parliament will ensure that the personal tax allowance and tax credits increase in line with inflation.

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Amazon To Create Thousands Of Jobs In London

Amazon has announced plans to open a new London office with the potential for more than 3,000 extra jobs.

The online retailer, which already employs 1,700 people in its existing UK offices, said its main corporate office would switch to a building in Shoreditch in 2017.

Amazon said its plans would increase its total office-based capacity to more than 5,000 employees in London.

Christopher North, Amazon UK's managing director, said: "We have already invested well over £1bn and created more than 7,000 permanent jobs across the UK.

"To support our continued growth in the UK, we have secured this exceptional building giving us the capacity to hire thousands of new employees in London in the coming years, in addition to the thousands of permanent roles we will create across our UK fulfilment and customer service centres."

Pic: Brookfield Property Partners

Amazon said its decision meant all corporate employees would be located in London by the summer of 2015 across three offices within the capital.

The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, welcomed the news.

He said: "Our city is the perfect home for top tech talent and I am very pleased that Amazon have confirmed their intention to create thousands of new jobs at a major new base in east London.

"We are proving time and again that we have the right places and people to support this vibrant sector."

Amazon said it new Principal Place building would offer it 600,000 square feet over 15 storeys.

The site, the company added, would provide "half an acre of public piazza and events space" and 20,000 square feet of retail, including cafes and restaurants offering alfresco dining.

The developers, Brookfield Property Partners, said Principal Place was destined to become the "go-to" link between the City and the media-tech sector in Hackney and Shoreditch.

Its statement said: "We are delighted to have signed a lease agreement with such a prestigious anchor tenant and we can now turn our attentions to moving the development forward".

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Scottish Vote: BP Says No To Independence

BP has weighed into the Scottish independence debate by declaring its support for the "integrity of the United Kingdom".

The oil firm's public statement was its first to directly support the Better Together campaign after similar comments earlier this year, in a personal capacity, by chief executive Bob Dudley.

Mr Dudley spoke out on Wednesday in the wake of criticism of Yes campaign estimates for future North Sea oil production and revenues by Sir Ian Wood.

The North Sea oil tycoon - acknowledged by both Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond as the industry's foremost expert - urged Scots not to gamble their economic future on misleading information and promises that could not be delivered.

He cited a report, which he said was sponsored by Yes campaigners and welcomed by Mr Salmond, which claimed there could be another 21 billion barrels of oil from unconventional shale reserves in the North Sea.

Sir Ian sad: "Quite frankly the N-56 report is an insult to the Scottish people.

"As passions rise and hearts risk overtaking minds in the debate, it is vital that Scots are able to make their decision based on fact and not fantasy.

Bob Dudley sees Scotland's future best served within the UK

"The N-56 report gives the impression that 21 billion barrels are in reserves. Nothing could be further from the truth."

Sir Ian has previously stated his belief that there are just 15 years of reserves left before major damage is inflected on the Scottish economy from declining production.

His comments on Wednesday gave rise to BP coming out in favour of the Union.

Mr Dudley said: "BP has been in the UK North Sea for 50 years and we hope to operate here for many years to come.

"However, the province is now mature and I believe Sir Ian Wood correctly assesses its future potential.

"The opportunities today are smaller and more challenging to develop than in the past.

"We also face the challenges of extending the productive life of existing assets and managing the future costs of decommissioning.

"Much of this activity requires fiscal support to be economic, and future long-term investments require fiscal stability and certainty.

"Our business invests for decades into the future. It is important our plans are based on a realistic view of the North Sea's future potential and the challenges the industry faces in continuing to operate here.

"As a major investor in Scotland - now and into the future - BP believes that the future prospects for the North Sea are best served by maintaining the existing capacity and integrity of the United Kingdom".

Leader in Aberdeen of pro-independence group Business for Scotland, Kenny Anderson, rounded on Sir Ian's comments.

He said: "We have stated that 24 billion barrels of oil is a reasonable target to extract if the North Sea is managed professionally and revenues maximised.

"Our sources for these estimates have included Oil and Gas UK, Professor Alex Kemp, Sir Donald McKay and many other leading forecasters and now it seems Sir Ian Wood himself once predicted the higher figure of 25 billion barrels left to produce.

"One thing is clear, all of the forecasts of the real experts - including Sir Ian's pessimistic one - are far, far higher than those published by the Westminster Government and claimed by Better Together.

"The North Sea represents a huge opportunity to Scotland as an independent country if we move from Westminster's cash cow approach to one of intelligent stewardship in an independent Scotland."

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RBS Plans London HQ If Scotland Leaves Union

The Royal Bank of Scotland is drawing up plans to relocate to London if Scotland votes Yes in the independence referendum next week.

Lloyds Banking Group, which includes Halifax and Bank of Scotland, also has plans to set up new "legal entities" in England just a week before the vote.

And pensions and insurance firm Standard Life has also advised investors it is "planning for new regulated companies in England to which we could transfer parts of our business if there was a need to do so".

A spokesman for the Treasury confirmed that RBS had been in contact over its plans and added Lloyds' contingencies were "understandable".

David Cameron has hit the campaign trail in Scotland

The spokesman said: "As you would expect, RBS have also been in touch with us and have similar plans to base themselves in London.

"Lloyds' contingency plan to relocate to London in the event of a yes vote is understandable.

"As a general matter, the Government believes any company should be free to choose where to locate its base, in the light of what best suits the stability and competitiveness of its business."

The latest poll shows Alex Salmond's Yes campaign is lagging behind again

A spokesman for Lloyds - which also includes Scottish Widows where David Cameron made a plea on Wednesday for Scotland to remain within the Union - said concerned customers and stakeholders had contacted it about its plans.

The spokesman said: "While the scale of potential change is currently unclear, we have contingency plans in place which include the establishment of new legal entities in England.

"This is a legal procedure and there would be no immediate changes or issues which could affect our business or our customers.

The referendum takes place on September 18

"There will be a period between the referendum and the implementation of separation, should a Yes vote be successful, that we believe should be sufficient to take any necessary action."

First Minister Alex Salmond, who leads the Yes campaign, said the idea that Standard Life would leave an independent Scotland was "scaremongering".

RBS, which has its headquarters at Gogarburn in Edinburgh, employs around 12,000 people in Scotland.

With just a week to go until the referendum, the latest poll has suggested the No campaign has experienced a resurgence.

The Survation poll of decided voters, published by the Daily Record, gave the No campaign a six-point lead with 53% of the vote.

It comes as Westminster heavyweights David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg hit the campaign trail across Scotland.

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B&Q Boss Warns Over Prices If Scots Vote Yes

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

The boss of Britain's biggest DIY retail group has warned that Scottish consumers could face higher prices than their counterparts south of the border if voters back independence in next week's referendum.

Sir Ian Cheshire, who was among hundreds of business leaders urged by David Cameron on Monday to speak out in favour of the union, told Sky News that a 'Yes' vote would almost certainly mean increased costs for a standalone Scottish business that would be passed on to customers.

Sir Ian has previously warned of an investment hiatus in Scotland, where Kingfisher employs approximately 5,500 people at its B&Q division.

"We think there is a real risk in terms of higher costs, the uncertainty about a currency union and the difficulty of making investment decisions," he said on Tuesday.

"Smaller, more complex markets often mean passing higher costs on to consumers.

"Investment decisions would be on pause while we work out what's likely to happen.

"We are not going to pick up stores and move them south of the border but [a 'Yes' vote] would represent real and significant challenge for our business."

Sir Ian's comments about potentially higher prices echo private warnings by some of the big supermarket groups, although retailers have generally been unwilling to make such comments publicly.

Sir Ian is expected to make more detailed remarks on the issue alongside Kingfisher's interim results on Wednesday.

A number of other prominent executives are also expected to speak out on the issue in the coming days as they respond to the Prime Minister's plea to give public backing to a No vote.

The latest opinion polls indicate that the two campaigns are neck and neck, defying the forecasts of those who had predicted an overwhelming win for the No lobby as recently as a few weeks ago.

Concerns about the potential impact of a Yes vote prompted uncertainty in financial markets on Monday, with sterling falling to its lowest level against the dollar for ten months, and companies with significant Scottish exposure experiencing falls in their share prices.

At Monday's Downing Street gathering, Mr Cameron said that preserving the union was an objective in which business leaders had a critical role to play, adding that it was as a United Kingdom that Britain had fought and defeated Hitler.

Some campaigners believe that a recent pro-Union letter signed by more than 130 businesspeople was counterproductive, although further such messages are planned for the No campaign during the next week.

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Scottish Jobs Market 'Wobbles' Ahead Of Vote

Uncertainty over the result of the next week's independence referendum may have knocked the confidence of employers in Scotland, according to a survey.

Manpower's employment outlook study measured a six-point fall for Scotland compared to its last survey - with growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 currently expected to be half that of the wider UK.

Hiring intentions nationwide also deteriorated, the survey found, with not only the referendum result knocking UK confidence.

The study was released 24 hours after financial markets reacted negatively to a poll showing the Yes campaign in the lead.

James Hick, managing director of ManpowerGroup Solutions, said: "The UK jobs market has experienced an unprecedented boom so far in 2014, with job creation peaking at its highest level since records began in 1971.

"This raises questions about whether the phenomenal level of job creation we've seen can be sustained.

"The fourth quarter's Outlook suggests it can't, with a two-point fall in hiring intentions - the sharpest dip we've seen in three years.

"While the UK economy is in robust health, there are issues that may be making employers more cautious.

"The eurozone's recovery is stalling, and the UK faces a period of political uncertainty with the Scottish independence referendum, a General Election and a potential vote on EU membership all on the horizon".

Manpower said its previous outlook study indicated that employers in Scotland remained confident about their hiring plans in the run up to the referendum but as September 18 drew closer, that confidence took a tumble.

Mr Hick added: "This could be due to the hesitance of employers to take on staff while there is a big question mark hanging over Scotland's future.

"However, the decline could also be down to the short-term nature of some of the recent hiring we've seen, fulfilling the demands of Scotland's Summer of Sport ...like the Commonwealth Games and the Ryder Cup in Gleneagles.

"It looks like the booming temporary jobs market may have left Scotland at the same time as the Commonwealth Games baton".

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Ex-RBS Exec To Run Mortgage Group Kensington

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

A former head of one of Britain's emerging 'challenger banks' is to take the helm of Kensington, the sub-prime mortgage lender, when it finalises a takeover by two Wall Street buyout giants.

Sky News understands that Ian Henderson, the former chief executive of Shawbrook, is to be installed in the same role at Kensington following its takeover by divisions of Blackstone and TPG.

The deal is expected to be announced to the London stock exchange on Tuesday morning, according to insiders.

It will see Kensington being acquired by Blackstone's Tactical Opportunities unit and TPG's TSSP special situations and credit platform for a price in line with City expectations.

Mr Henderson quit Shawbrook, which is among a group of fast-growing banks eyeing stock market listings, in April after fewer than 18 months in the role.

A former chief operating officer of Barclays Wealth, he also ran Royal Bank of Scotland's international arm for a period.

Kensington has been owned by the Anglo-South African financial services provider Investec since an ill-timed £283m deal in the summer of 2007, just as financial markets began to seize up.

Kensington was previously a publicly-listed company whose former chief executives include John Maltby, who is now leading an investment consortium which is buying a stake in 315 Royal Bank of Scotland branches.

Blackstone and TPG are understood to see significant opportunities to grow Kensington's business and are expected to make substantial amounts of capital available for it to do so.

Investec, which is the main sponsor of the England cricket team, signalled its intention to sell Kensington in February.

Blackstone and TPG are understood to have seen off competition from at least three other bidders for the business, one of which was said to be Lonestar, a specialist US property investor.

"With the ongoing recovery in mortgage lending and wholesale funding markets we believe that Kensington is now well placed to continue growing and that this growth potential may be better realised under different ownership," Stephen Koseff, chief executive of Investec, said at the start of the auction process.

Analysts say the bank should recoup the majority of its initial outlay, with Kensington's recent performance aided by the strength of the UK housing market.

The auction of Kensington, which is being handled by Fenchurch Advisory, comes amid increasing signs of an overheating housing market in London and the south-east.

Some of the UK's biggest banks have imposed fresh limits on mortgage lending in the capital in recent months.

Blackstone, TPG and Investec declined to comment.

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Fast-Track Care For Workers With Stress

Mental illness cost the UK economy up to £100bn last year prompting calls for speeding up care through the health system.

The chief medical officer said there has been a 24% increase in the number of working days lost to stress, depression and anxiety since 2009.

Professor Dame Sally Davies said around 70 million working days were lost to mental illness in 2013.

In her latest annual report, Dame Sally said more needed to be done to help people battling mental illness to remain in work.

She said: "The costs of mental illness to the economy are astounding. Through this report, I urge commissioners and decision-makers to treat mental health more like physical health.

"Anyone with mental illness deserves good quality support at the right time.

"One of the stark issues highlighted in this report is that 60-70% of people with common mental disorders such as depression and anxiety are in work, so it is crucial that we take action to help those people stay in employment to benefit their own health as well as the economy."

Dr Peter Carter, chief executive and general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, said: "The treatment gap for people with mental health problems can no longer be ignored.

"Not only are people with mental health problems in need of better support for their mental health conditions, but there is an unacceptable and preventable level of correlation with physical ill health."

Stephen Dalton, chief executive of the NHS Confederation's Mental Health Network, added: "We welcome this bold report and its important contribution to a long overdue national debate."

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