Bank Of England To Unveil Monetary Policy Shift

By Ed Conway, Economics Editor

The Bank of England is set to unveil the most significant changes to the way it conducts monetary policy since it was granted independence in 1997.

Mark Carney, the bank's new governor, is expected to announce that in future it will follow a policy of "forward guidance" - pre-committing to keeping interest rates low long into the future.

The precise details of the new policy will be laid out at the bank's Inflation Report press conference at 10:30am, but economists say the bank may pledge to leave rates unchanged until the unemployment rate drops beneath a certain threshold.

Allan Monks of JP Morgan said he expected that level to be 7%, but added that the main message will be "that rates are unlikely to rise for the next two years or more - despite the better signs on growth".

The BoE is expected to follow "forward guidance"

The economy has been showing increasingly convincing signs of recovery in recent weeks, with both the services and manufacturing sectors expanding at rapid rates.

The data has led some to suggest that any shift by the Bank of England may risk stimulating the economy too much.

However, Sir John Gieve, former deputy governor, said forward guidance would help improve the bank's communication with the general public.

"The main impact will come through how it affects the economy," he said.

"But Mark Carney is also very keen to reach out beyond the narrow audience of central bank watchers, to ordinary people and companies. I think he can do that if he can keep the message simple and plain."

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