Weather Helps Economic Recovery 'Build Steam'

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 06 Agustus 2013 | 11.46

There is further evidence the UK's economic recovery is gathering pace following the release of a closely-watched survey for the dominant service sector.

It grew at its fastest pace in more than six years in July, according to the Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), boosted by new orders and better weather.

The PMI has now shown growth for seven consecutive months and the latest service sector rise follows strong gains in equivalent manufacturing and construction surveys.

Taken together, the data gives the highest composite PMI since the series started in 1998, suggesting economic output from July to September is well-placed to beat the 0.6% GDP growth recorded for the previous three months.

Paul Smith, senior economist at Markit, said: "Although an early call on one month's data, the forward-looking elements from the survey point to a further strengthening of GDP in Q3 as the UK heads towards 'escape velocity' and self-sustaining economic expansion."

Construction site Construction and manufacturing are also seeing signs of better growth

Both new orders and business confidence in the services sector rose in July, with the new orders coming in at their fastest pace since November 2006.

While firms said that some of July's strength was due to unusually warm weather, overall the figures point to a very rapid turnaround for Britain's economy, which just a few months ago looked vulnerable to facing a third recession in five years.

Although Britain's economy is still 3% smaller than before the financial crisis, signs of expansion also pose a challenge for the Bank of England.

On Wednesday, new governor Mark Carney is due to say whether the bank will go ahead with a policy of 'forward guidance' aimed at keeping down bond yields while the economy remains fragile.

Some policymakers may be reluctant to make a lengthy commitment to low rates at a time when the economy may be on the cusp of a more rapid recovery.

Separate reports on Monday from the CBI business lobby group, manufacturers' organisation EEF and recruitment group Reed pointed to improvements in the economy, although "significant risks" remained.

The CBI said new orders among small to medium-sized manufacturers continued to fall in the three months to July, "disappointing" expectations for growth.

Its head of economic analysis, Anna Leach, said: "Despite another disappointing quarter for small and medium-sized manufacturers, with output continuing to fall, optimism about the general business situation has risen for the first time since spring last year.

"Firms expect demand to improve both at home and abroad and production to stabilise over the next three months but manufacturers remain concerned about the impact of political and economic conditions overseas on external demand, reflecting on-going uncertainty about the global economic outlook."


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