Latest GDP Drop Puts Pressure On Osborne

A lot of people suspected the news would not be good. It turns out it was even worse than expected.

Britain's economy is shrinking once again - and far deeper into negative territory than was anticipated.

That 0.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2012 leaves Britain's gross domestic product 3.3% shy of its 2008 peak.

It's deeply embarrassing for the Chancellor, who told Sky News earlier today that despite this setback it was "a reminder that Britain faces a very difficult situation.

"We have problems at home but there are also problems abroad. You can either run away from them - and the British public understand there is no overnight solution and we are heading in the right direction."

But according to the Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, the figures are the "moment when David Cameron and George Osborne's complacency is completely exposed".

And it leaves the UK even further shy of its international counterparts. In Canada, the US, Germany, China and plenty of other major countries, GDP has already rebounded to the level it was before the crisis.

Britain, on the other hand, remains below that peak - even five years after the crisis started.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research defines a depression as a "period when output is depressed below its previous peak."

IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said Osborne needs to change his plan

By that definition, Britain is still stuck in a depression - and this depression is longer than any in recorded economic history: even the 1930s.

In the end, this is the challenge for George Osborne. Britain's total capacity to produce wealth - which is in essence what GDP measures - has diminished substantially during this crisis. That, when it comes down to it, is what lies behind the squeeze so many families are facing on their incomes.

And the economy's inability to regain meaningful growth is something that should concern the Chancellor. There is now growing pressure (even more than the significant amount there was before) for him to reconsider his fiscal plans.

It isn't merely Nick Clegg: the International Monetary Fund's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, believes that having warned Mr Osborne multiple times that he needs to be ready to change course if the UK economy disappoints, that moment has now come.

Whether this pressure will be enough to force Mr Osborne to change course is another question. He has been so forthright about the need for austerity all the way through the crisis that it would surely be politically humiliating to do an about-turn now.

And indeed, the evidence is that the austerity practiced in the UK hasn't actually been as aggressive as the Chancellor has made it sound.

However, the Chancellor refused to answer whether he agreed or disagreed with Mr Blanchard's advice.

Pointing to alternative support from the former IMF chief economist he said: "You're going to get economists disagreeing. I'm absolutely clear: we have the right plan. It was not a plan that was going to deliver results overnight." 

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UK GDP Falls By 0.3% In Last Quarter

How GDP Is Compiled Really Matters

Updated: 10:21am UK, Tuesday 27 November 2012

By Ed Conway, Economics Editor

I've covered economics for a decade or so, but I confess that until very recently I didn't really know what GDP really is.

I mean, like most of you I knew it was the broadest and most widely-used measure of our economy's health - that it determines whether we're officially in recession or not (two or more quarters of shrinking GDP equals a recession).

I knew it was the sum of everything spent, earned or made in Britain.

What I didn't know was how it's actually put together.

I guess I vaguely assumed - and I don't think I'm entirely alone - that the Office for National Statistics had some kind of electronic hotline into British business, some privileged access to their numbers, which in turn became the Gross Domestic Product number.

Turns out I was monumentally wrong.

For it transpires that GDP - that big number we're all so focused on, the figure that tells us whether we're in a recession or booming, that can end a political career and swing an election - is actually a big, big survey.

I know this because earlier this month I spent some time in the ONS headquarters in Newport with the team who put together this most significant of all numbers.

For the first time, they allowed cameras into their offices to show how GDP really comes into being - and the genesis might well surprise you.

At this point it might be worth explaining why this matters so much: there is arguably no other number out there that can swing the financial markets quite so much, that can influence Britain's feelgood factor, that dominates the headlines and strikes fear into politicians.

And yet there are many people who question whether we can really rely on the numbers.

Some economists argue that the GDP figures in recent months have painted a far more negative picture of the UK economy than is actually the case.

Some argue that Britain never really experienced a double-dip recession - but that this reality will only ever be confirmed many years into the future when the ONS revises those initial estimates.

So how GDP is put together really matters. And it all starts with the pounds in your pockets.

The first estimate of GDP is created from data collected in surveys of tens of thousands of surveys from businesses around the country - whether they're manufacturers, construction firms, retailers or others.

Each month a large sample of them is asked by the ONS to tell them their turnover (how much money is going through the till), along with a few other industry-specific questions which form part of the retail sales, manufacturing output and other releases.

The turnover number is what matters from the perspective of GDP. They fill the relevant questionnaire in and post it to the ONS (they can also submit the data through an automated telephone system).

When those envelopes arrive there the questionnaires are scanned and the numbers go into the ONS' systems.

The problem is that by the time that first estimate needs to be produced, the ONS only has 44% of the relevant data (the rest arrives in dribs and drabs over the following months, hence later revisions). In particular, the ONS only has early responses for the final month of the quarter.

So there are some pretty big gaps to be filled, and the ONS has to make some estimates about what the other data will eventually say when it comes in.

It relies for this on computer models, backed up by assumptions and calculations from the ONS staff themselves. After they make these calls they meet and discuss them in so-called "balancing meetings" - the statisticians ask each other whether the data are reliable and their assumptions have foundation.

During this entire period, those GDP assumptions and the ultimate figure are kept locked up (quite literally - there are safes into which they are put) such that only a dozen or so statisticians actually know the number before it comes out.

So far as anyone knows, there has never been a leak of a number as sensitive as this from the ONS. But 24 hours before the figures are published, selected ministers and officials also get a look.

The figures are revised again a month after that initial release, and then again a month later. During that period, more information has come in from quarterly surveys which measure families' and businesses' incomes, and other spending data.

As I said, GDP can be measured in terms of what we spend, what we earn and what we make - they should all add up to the same number, since what one person buys another person sells. And the extra data furnishes that initial estimate and, occasionally, contradicts it.

The ONS maintains that its record of revisions is acceptable by international standards. It points out that its surveys have far more respondents than those put together by independent competitors.

But some, most notably Kevin Daly of Goldman Sachs, argue that it has a tendency to revise the more distant history so substantially that often periods we thought at the time were slumps were actually booms.

A case in point is the early 1990s - at the time, the ONS said the UK was suffering a double-dip recession.

But by the end of the millennium it had revised its assessment - far from slumping, the UK was actually bouncing back forcefully at that point. When Norman Lamont referred to "green shoots", it turns out he was absolutely right.

Today, the GDP figures have been telling an altogether different story to the unemployment figures, which seem to suggest there never was a double-dip. Based on precedent, we are unlikely to know the definitive story for years to come.

Which implies that the ONS, and the way it puts together this most important of all numbers, will remain in the spotlight for the foreseeable future.

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Nokia Returns To Profit But Phone Sales Fall

Struggling phone maker Nokia has reported a profit for the last quarter of 2012, compared to a £633m loss a year earlier.

The Finnish firm said its fourth quarter profit was 202m euros (£170m), but revenue fell 20% as it failed to make gains in the fiercely competitive smartphone market.

Nokia said that revenue dropped to 8bn euros (£6.75bn) from 10bn euros (£8.45bn) as smartphone sales plunged 55% from a year earlier.

It also gave a grim outlook, saying it expects operating margins in the first quarter of this year to be "approximately negative 2%, plus or minus four percentage points".

It cited increased competition and lower-than-expected demand for its flagship Lumia phones and cheaper Asha models.

Nokia sold 15.9 million smartphones in the quarter, down from 19.6 million a year earlier, including 4.4 million Lumia phones.

In all, it sold 45 million mobile phones in the period, 15% fewer than in 2011.

Chief executive Stephen Elop said he was encouraged that the company's strategy had reached "underlying profitability" and strengthened its financial position but cautioned that more cutbacks could be expected.

"We remain focused on moving through our transition, which includes continuing to improve our product competitiveness, accelerate the way we operate and manage our costs effectively," Mr Elop said.

The company's share price dropped more than 3% in early afternoon trading in Helsinki.

Nokia's position in the smartphone market shadows the position held by Samsung and Apple, as the larger firms battle it out for supremacy.

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Microsoft Reveals Year-On-Year Profit Dip

Windows 8 has helped Microsoft to post record revenues in the past quarter, but its profits are down slightly from the same period a year ago.

Profits dipped 3.7% from 12 months ago to $6.38bn (£4.04bn), which was better than many had forecast.

Revenues rose 2.7% to $21.46bn (£13.59), a record for the US tech giant.

Microsoft said the boost in revenues came from pre-sales and upgrades of Windows 8, and gains in business software and other segments.

The second fiscal quarter statement, however, did not offer specific sales data for the Surface tablet - launched late last year by Microsoft - or its new Windows Phone 8 system.

"Our big, bold ambition to re-imagine Windows as well as launch Surface and Windows Phone 8 has sparked growing enthusiasm with our customers and unprecedented opportunity and creativity with our partners and developers," said Steve Ballmer, chief executive.

"With new Windows devices, including Surface Pro, and the new Office on the horizon, we'll continue to drive excitement for the Windows ecosystem and deliver our software through devices and services people love and businesses need."

The profit amounted to 76 cents (48 pence) per share - one cent better than the Wall Street consensus.

Microsoft shares traded down 1.4% in after-hours exchanges.

Citi analyst Walter Pritchard said Microsoft was on target.

"This was the first time in memory we haven't seen disappointment in the Windows line," he said.

Raimo Lenschow at Barclays said the results were "essentially in line with investors' low expectations."

The analyst said Microsoft shares would "pull back only modestly" and that investors will be "looking for further detail on what management expects for Windows 8 moving forward" and sales figures for the Surface.

Windows remains the dominant platform for personal computers, but Microsoft has lost ground to Google and Apple in newer devices which use rival operating systems.

The company's search and online services have struggled, but its Xbox is the hottest gaming system in the industry.

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Iceland's Leader Slams Gordon Brown Over Crisis

By Ed Conway, Economics Editor, in Davos

The President of Iceland has launched an extraordinary verbal attack on Gordon Brown on the fringes of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, the country's longest-serving president, told Sky News that his country would "never forget" its treatment during the financial crisis at the hands of the former British prime minister.

During the financial crisis, following the collapse of Icelandic bank Icesave and Iceland's refusal to refund UK deposits, Britain took the rare step of imposing financial sanctions on the country.

Mr Grimsson told Sky News: "The Gordon Brown government decided, to its eternal shame, to put the Icelandic government on a list of terrorist states and terrorist phenomena. We were there together with al Qaeda and the Taliban on that list.

"We have not forgotten that in Iceland.

The Icesave website was used by British bank account holders

"Gordon Brown will be long remembered in my country for centuries to come, long after he has been completely forgotten in Britain."

Mr Brown is also in Davos to speak on panels about development and youth activism.

Mr Grimsson said the estate of the bank had managed to recover enough assets to "pay back to those who have deposits and the British authorities everything which can be reasonably required".

An EFTA court is due on Monday to give a legal verdict as to whether Iceland's actions were appropriate, however Mr Grimsson said this will only be advisory, and that "it will not lead to any financial obligations or transactions of any sort".

The president also signalled his country may soon abandon its plans to join the European Union.

Iceland started formal negotiations towards becoming an EU member in 2009, but this week suspended it for what was expected to be a number of months.

However, when asked whether he could foresee his country joining the EU in his term, which still has three-and-a-half years to run, Mr Grimsson said: "If you want me to take a bet, I would definitely say no."

Icesave protesters in Iceland demonstrated outside the country's parliament

He added: "It's quite clear both in my country and other parts of northern Europe that there is a growing scepticism about the way the European Union is moving forward.

"In the last three years the eurozone has revealed itself to be a different kind of animal.

"We have decided to take a pause, not to move forward at all in the coming months, and then to revisit the issue sometime later.

"We don't want to drag the process on for long. Later this year we will face the decision of whether we call the discussions off altogether ... or whether we prolong the talks which have now been created.

"There is no strong political force in my country arguing that we need to finish the negotiations quickly because we want to join the European Union."

Coming on the back of David Cameron's announcement of plans for a prospective in-out referendum on Britain's membership, the comments represent a further blow for the EU.

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Apple Reports Quarterly Revenue Of $54.5bn

Apple sold 47.8 million iPhones in the last quarter of 2012 and its revenues rose to $54.5bn (£34.4bn) - but the numbers fell short of its targets.

Revenue for the first fiscal quarter of 2013 - the key Christmas shopping period from October 1 to December 31 last year - came in at a record $54.5bn (£34.4bn), but less than the $55bn (£34.7bn) forecast by Wall Street.

Earnings of $13.1bn (£8.2bn) remained flat compared to the year before, marking the first time tech giant had not boasted double-digit increases in earnings for several years.

Shares of the computing giant fell in after-hours trading, at one point plunging more than 10%.

Some analysts had expected iPhone sales to be around 50 million and revenues to be slightly higher.

Net profit came in at $13.1bn (£8.7bn).

The results are likely to rekindle questions over what Apple has in its product pipeline, and what it can do to attract new sales and maintain its rocket-like growth.

CEO Tim Cook succeeded Steve Jobs

It was the third quarter that Apple has missed revenue expectations.

Competition from Samsung and signs that the smartphone market may be close to saturation have slowed Apple's growth.

Questions remain over the company's ability to innovate after the death of iconic co-founder Steve Jobs.

But chief executive Tim Cook said he was "thrilled" with the figures and insisted the company continued to focus on innovation.

"We're thrilled with record revenue of over $54bn and sales of over 75 million iOS devices in a single quarter," Mr Cook said.

"We're very confident in our product pipeline as we continue to focus on innovation and making the best products in the world."

Apple also sold 22.9 million iPads in the quarter, in line with expectations.

But only 4.1 million Mac laptop and desktop computers were snapped up compared to 5.2 million in the same period a year ago, while Apple shifted 12.7 million iPod portable media players this year in contrast to 15.4 million during last year's first quarter.

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Barclays Wields Jobs Axe At UK Investment Bank

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

London-based employees at Barclays' investment banking arm have been put on notice that their jobs are at risk as the bank launched a process to slash a "substantial" number of roles.

I understand that staff were emailed earlier today to say that Barclays was commencing a consultation process to identify potential redundancies across its investment banking business.

People familiar with the matter said the consultation process would end during the first half of February, and that all areas of the investment bank, including frontline deal-makers as well as back office staff, were under review.

News of the impending jobs cull, which insiders said was likely to involve hundreds of job cuts in London, comes weeks before Antony Jenkins, Barclays' new chief executive, outlines the results of a review of the bank's operations.

Mr Jenkins has already made it clear since taking over as the bank's boss in the wake of the Libor-rigging scandal that Barclays would continue to be a universal bank, offering both retail and investment banking services, under his leadership.

However, his efforts to repair the group's tarnished reputation is likely to involve withdrawing from more contentious areas of the investment bank's operations, such as some elements of commodities trading and aggressive tax planning.

Last week, Mr Jenkins told Barclays staff that they would have to adhere to a strict new ethical code of conduct if they wanted to remain at the bank.

Reports late last year suggested that as many as 2,000 jobs would be shed at Barclays' investment bank but that the bulk of these cuts would take place in Asia and continental Europe.

People familiar with the matter said these reports had been "speculative" and that today's consultation process signalled that a substantial number of jobs were expected to go in the UK.

Barclays employs approximately just under 10,000 people at its investment bank in London, principally at its Canary Wharf headquarters. About 23,000 people work at Barclays' investment bank globally.

Since acquiring the US operations of Lehman Brothers after the collapse of the Wall Street bank in 2008, Barclays has made an aggressive push to become one of the world's pre-eminent investment banks. That drive, under Mr Jenkins' predecessor Bob Diamond, has met with some success but the cost of building that business has left many shareholders unimpressed.

Mr Diamond resigned following Barclays' £290m Libor fine, alongside Marcus Agius, Barclays' former chairman.

In a statement, a Barclays spokesman said: "We have begun a process of consultation with UK-based employees.

"This exercise is being carried out so that we can start to effect some of the strategic changes as a consequence of the Transform review of Barclays business, the outcomes of which will be announced on the 12th of February.

"Transform is explicitly intended to optimise the entire Barclays business and to accelerate our already strong performance. The changes planned for the Investment Bank are wholly consistent with that intent."

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Rolls-Royce Job Cuts: Union Says 400 Face Axe

Aerospace firm Rolls-Royce has confirmed it is in consultation over job cuts at one of its plants, after a union said nearly 400 workers are at risk.

Rolls-Royce sent an internal memo to its staff to detail its proposals, according to the Unite union.

The plan puts 378 defence jobs at risk at its Ansty plant, near Coventry, Unite said - nearly half of its 800-strong workforce.

The union blamed defence spending cuts by the Government and said Rolls-Royce was planning to shut the plant in the next few years.

Rolls-Royce said in a statement: "We are in consultation with trade unions over reductions in our defence workforce at Ansty.

"We hope to achieve this without compulsory redundancies."

The firm said its civil aerospace business in Ansty was not affected by the plan.

Ian Waddell, Unite's national officer for aerospace and shipbuilding, said: "The blame for the loss of these highly skilled jobs in the key defence sector lies with the Government and its short-sighted determination to ram through massive spending cuts in the defence budget.

"Once again, Unite calls for a coherent defence industrial strategy to be drawn up as matter of urgency to safeguard jobs and a defence industry at which Britain excels.

"This is vital - otherwise more high-skilled jobs will be lost, perhaps forever.

"There is a very long timescale for consultation and implementation, so we hope that compulsory redundancies will be avoided."

Mr Waddell added that "work from Germany will be transferred to Rolls-Royce's site at Bristol".

He said bosses at Rolls-Royce had acted "fairly" by giving as much notice as possible to the staff of the company's plans.

The 200-acre Rolls-Royce site at Ansty employs about 800 people and handles the refit and repair of both aeroplane and marine engines.

Components for the company's Trent series of civil aviation engines are also manufactured on the site.

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Old Fashioned Con Artistry Makes A Comeback

Traditional con artistry is making a comeback with cheque and procurement fraud as well as Ponzi scams on the rise.

While the spotlight has been on rogue traders and 'super' fraud cases in recent years, KPMG has found a surge in the number of individuals swindling employers, banks and the government.

The latest bi-annual Fraud Barometer reports that insider fraud is hitting corporates hard while more individuals are over-claiming benefits and evading tax.

Cases include a finance department employee who stole hundreds of thousands of pounds – leading to the closure of the company she worked for.

In another case a family used false identities to claim £2.2m in HIV medication, which was then shipped to Africa and sold at a profit.

Identity fraud more than doubled in value to £26.3m from the year before, counterfeit goods fraud was three times the five-year average at £22.9m and Ponzi Schemes worth £72m came to court - again three times the level seen in 2011. Procurement fraud increased to £21.4m in 2012.

Hitesh Patel, UK Forensic Partner at KPMG, said: "In the last few years we have become used to sophisticated frauds at eye-watering values. 

"While the total value of fraud has dropped substantially in the absence of so-called fraud 'super' cases, the old-fashioned con man hasn't given up his tricks. 

"Times may be tough but the data shows that some people are unwilling to give up the lifestyles they've become accustomed to."

Fraud by either management or employees accounted for 80% of financial loss through fraud experienced by UK businesses in 2012.

Employee fraud cases rose to 35 in 2012, up from 22 the year before with their value doubling from £12m in 2011 to £25.1m over the past year.

Tax evasion or benefit fraud cases rose to 15 from three in 2011.

Mr Patel said: "Tax evasion is one of the hot topics of the moment but an increasing assault on the social welfare budgets, particularly benefit fraud, is a real and increasing threat for the government, as shown by the latest figures. 

"Fraudulent actions of individuals in both the public and private sectors exacerbate the need to make cuts in the first place and cause more than just monetary loss: jobs can be lost and already tight government budgets are stretched further, with implications for the delivery of services."

The report also found a fall in the number of cases perpetrated by professional criminals from 98 at the end of 2011 (valued at £1.4bn) to 79 in the 12 months to December 2012 (valued at £414m).

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Defence Cuts: 5,000 Soldiers Set To Be Axed

By Alistair Bunkall, Defence Correspondent

Around 5,000 soldiers will be made redundant in the latest round of job cuts, the Government will announce today.

The Army will bear the heaviest burden in this third tranche of redundancies, the Navy and RAF having already completed most of their necessary cuts.

Sky News understands that soldiers fitting the redundancy criteria will be informed by their superiors later this morning.

Anyone currently serving in Afghanistan is likely to be exempt from this round of job cuts, so too are soldiers preparing to deploy within the next six months and anyone recovering from a recent operational tour of duty.

No-one will actually be made redundant immediately and today's announcement marks the start of the process for the latest round of cuts. Final decisions will be made by June.

In the last round of cuts, 72% of redundancies ended up being voluntary. Military leaders and politicians are hoping for a similar outcome this time round.

Anyone accepted for voluntary redundancy will be expected to work a six-month notice period and those selected for compulsory redundancy will have a full year to find alternative employment before leaving the service.

They will be given resettlement support.

Around 9,000 British personnel are deployed to Afghanistan

By the end of the process the Army will have shrunk to 80,000 soldiers, a reduction of around 20,000, mostly through a redundancy process but also achieved through slower recruitment.

A fourth round of cuts is expected but has not been confirmed. It is likely this would happen at around the same time next year.

The job losses are part of a strategic review driven by budget cuts which aims produce a new look military by 2020.

The biggest commitment by some way is in Afghanistan - 9,000 personnel are deployed in the country - but the withdrawal process is due to start this year and by the end of 2014 most soldiers will have returned home.

Final numbers haven not been announced.

In October last year the Defence Secretary announced plans to rename the Territorial Army the 'Reservists' and double its members to 30,000.

There is also a hope that some of those leaving the military because of the redundancy scheme might sign up to the TA so their experience is not lost.

By the end of the redundancy process the number of serving personnel in all three services will be reduced to 150,000 from 180,000.

It will result in the smallest army since the 18th century and plenty of concerns over effectiveness.

It is not just serving military personnel taking the hit - the Ministry of Defence is in the process of cutting around 25% of its staff. The aim is to save £3.8m a year and to make the department less top-heavy with management.

The UK still faces real or potential threats around the globe, demonstrated in the past few weeks by the hostage situation in Algeria and conflict in Mali.

Some, particularly retired service chiefs, question the UK's ability to face these threats with a reduced military and gaps in the equipment locker.

The Government will again need to convince detractors, home and abroad, that the UK military can still earn international respect despite its reduced size.

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Banks Face New £1bn PPI Mis-Selling Bill

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

Britain's biggest banks are poised to add hundreds of millions of pounds more to their collective bill for mis-selling Payment Protection Insurance (PPI) in the coming weeks even as they accelerate efforts to persuade the regulator to impose a deadline on claims.

I understand from senior bank executives that the major lenders could add more than £1bn in aggregate to the industry's tab for PPI when they report full-year results during the next six weeks.

The figures are still being finalised and so represent preliminary estimates only. But if borne out, the figure would take the bill for the four largest UK banks (Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland) to beyond £11bn, further cementing its status as one of the biggest British mis-selling scandals ever.

Bankers say that the latest wave of compensation is being used in talks with the Financial Services Authority (FSA) as evidence that a deadline for claims is essential if banks are to continue rebuilding capital levels while growing lending to the real economy.

Sky News disclosed last November that talks between the banks and the FSA were taking place in order to establish a time limit. The FSA confirmed last week that it was considering imposing a deadline on claims.

In a statement on Friday, the regulator said: "The Financial Services Authority (FSA) has been approached by the British Bankers' Association (BBA) to discuss the potential for introducing a time limit for Payment Protection Insurance (PPI) complaints - if the banking industry funded a sufficiently widespread advertising campaign to ensure consumers are aware of the PPI issue and how to complain.

"Our key priority is to ensure consumers are protected, so the FSA Board would need to be convinced that any proposals would be in the interests of consumers. We have had initial discussions and are prepared to consider the merits of this and other options.

"A key consideration will be the potential to get compensation to more consumers, more quickly.

"We will continue to hold discussions with the BBA as well as actively seeking the opinions of consumer groups and other stakeholders.

"However, no changes to existing FSA, or future Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), rules would take place without a full public consultation."

Consumer groups expressed anger at the FSA's decision to consider the banks' lobbying efforts. Even if the industry gets its way, analysts now believe the total cost of PPI mis-selling is likely to exceed £15bn.

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Prince Charles In British Industry Warning

Prince Charles is to warn that Britain is in danger of losing its reputation as the "standard bearer of quality manufacturing and engineering" if more young people are not attracted into the industries.

The Prince of Wales will deliver his speech during a visit to the Jaguar Land Rover production plant at Halewood on Merseyside.

He will say: "As a country, we are rightly proud of our industrial heritage, but we should also celebrate our continued success as the standard bearer of quality manufacturing and engineering throughout the world.

"From car production to quality shoe-making, from precision engineering to traditional craft skills, Britain is truly a global leader."

But he will stress that this reputation is at stake if the country does not attract more young people into manufacturing and engineering in the future.

The Prince is carrying out a series of visits over two days to champion the 'Best of British' engineering and manufacturing in the UK.

He will also launch Industrial Cadets, a national initiative backed by the Department for Communities and Local Government to encourage young people to join manufacturing industries.

The idea stemmed from discussions between the Prince and Tata Steel in 2010 and is being run by the education charity EDT.

Industrial Cadets aims to raise aspirations for students aged 12 to 14 by building awareness of manufacturing industry in their local area.

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Investment Bank Chief To Quit RBS In Shake-Up

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is to embark on a further restructuring of its investment banking arm in a move that will pave the way for the departure of the unit's chief executive.

I have learned that RBS executives are at an advanced stage of preparations for splitting its markets and international banking arm (M&IB), which employs more than 16,000 people around the world, into two separate divisions.

The split, which could be announced within days, would mean that the heads of the two divisions will now report directly to Stephen Hester, RBS's chief executive.

Alongside news of the restructuring, and assuming that the plans are approved by RBS's board, it will also announce that John Hourican, chief executive of the M&IB business, is to leave the bank.

Mr Hourican's departure will end more than four years in the role, in which he has overseen one of the most radical restructurings of an investment bank ever attempted.

Formerly the chief financial officer of ABN Amro, the Dutch bank which RBS bought as part of a consortium in a spectacularly ill-fated deal in 2007, Mr Hourican has engineered a vast reduction in the level of risk-weighted assets on RBS's balance sheet.

Earlier this month, it was reported that Mr Hourican would leave RBS to satisfy demands from regulators for senior scalps as part of the taxpayer-backed lender's settlement with UK and US authorities over the manipulation of Libor, the interbank borrowing rate.

A settlement could be announced next week, although it is more likely to be confirmed at the end of January, City sources said.

RBS insiders have acknowledged that Mr Hourican was unaware of any wrongdoing by the bank's employees in relation to its role in setting benchmark interest rates, but said the division of M&IB into two units meant that the bulk of his work had now been completed.

Shares awarded to Mr Hourican in previous years are likely to vest on his departure from the bank, although he would not receive a payoff other than his contractual entitlement.

Mr Hester is understood to have given Mr Hourican his backing in recent weeks and is said to be keen that the latter's departure is not connected to any Libor-related wrongdoing by RBS staff.

Speculation suggested that Peter Nielsen, head of RBS's markets business within M&IB, would also be asked to resign by the bank's board.

I understand, however, that Mr Nielsen's departure has not been agreed either internally or with regulators, and that he may not leave in the near future.

RBS's investment bank was given the M&IB name after a previous restructuring that involved the sale or closure of the parts of its operations which advised on areas such as mergers and acquisitions activity.

Previously called global banking and markets (GBM), it has been reduced in size to the extent that the investment bank now accounts for approximately 20% of RBS's risk-weighted assets, which provide one measure of the risk on a bank's balance sheet, compared to about 60% five years ago. The number of people working in the division has also come down from about 26,000 to roughly 16,000.

RBS will need to undertake a further year of wider balance sheet restructuring before it can begin to resemble what directors have called "a normal bank".

The future of RBS's investment banking business has become increasingly contentious in recent months as British banks come under pressure to raise the level of their protective capital buffers.

The Financial Services Authority wrote to Mr Hester last autumn to suggest that the M&IB business could be scaled back much further, and that view is understood to have the support of some board directors.

Although it is the most controversial area of RBS's business and the banking sector in general,  the investment bank has yielded more than £10bn of profit since RBS was rescued by British taxpayers in 2008.

After Mr Hourican's departure, the terms of which are not yet finalised, the two M&IB units are likely to be run by John Owen, who heads international banking, and either Mr Nielsen or Suneel Kamlani, Mr Hourican's deputy.

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Blockbuster Shuts 129 Shops And Slashes Staff

The collapsed DVD and games rental firm Blockbuster is to close 129 of its 528 shops and axe 760 workers in the coming weeks.

Some 31 branches have already been put on notice of closure, according to the company's administrators Deloitte.

The move means the chain is already planning to close a quarter of its branches and make 18% of its workforce redundant.

It was announced just days after the chain went into administration in a run of bad news for the British high street.

There will be fears that this is just the first step in taking apart a company that employs more than 4,000 people in the UK.

Lee Manning, of administrator Deloitte, said: "Having reviewed the portfolio with management, the store closure plan is an inevitable consequence of having to restructure the company to a profitable core which is capable of being sold.

"We would like to thank the company's employees for their support and professionalism during this difficult time. We are also grateful to the customers for their continued support."

An employee helpline and an "employee assistance programme" have been set up to help staff find other jobs.

The firm's trading woes were blamed on competition from internet firms and digital streaming of movies and games.

Blockbuster had struggled to adapt to the changing market and rivalry from internet retailers including Netflix, Amazon's LoveFilm and iTunes, which now offers a movie rental service.

Its collapse came after its own plans to break into film-streaming appeared to stall in recent months.

It follows the demise of camera chain Jessops and electricals group Comet, which also blamed competition from online players for their downfall.

Just a day before Blockbuster went into administration, the music and entertainment chain HMV went under following dismal Christmas sales.

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