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Spain Slashes Economic Growth Forecasts

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 27 April 2013 | 11.46

The Spanish government has forecast that the economy will contract by more than expected in 2013, but will return to growth next near.

The country's deputy prime minister said its gross domestic product (GDP) would shrink by 1.3% in 2013 - down from the 0.5% contraction previously forecast.

But Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said Spain's economy is expected to return to growth of 0.5% in 2014, and will expand by 0.9% in 2015.

At a press conference following the adoption of a new economic plan for the country, she said that no major new reforms, tax hikes and spending cuts were needed to meet the new targets.

Protest in Madrid The forecasts come a day after protestors took to the streets of Madrid

She added that the government - which had to backtrack from its promise to cut taxes next year - was still aiming to cut some taxes in 2015.

The economy minister, Luis de Guindos, said the deficit-reduction strategy had been agreed with the European Commission and other eurozone officials.

"2014 will be the year of recovery," he said.

The deficit is now forecast to reach 6.3% of GDP in 2013 - well above earlier targets - but would fall to 2.7% by 2016, Mr de Guindos added.

The unemployment rate - which hit a record high of 27.2% in the first quarter of this year - is expected to fall back to 26.7% in 2014, and 25% in 2015.

It comes as protests broke out in Madrid on Wednesday following the release of the latest jobs data.

Around 1,000 people took to the streets in the latest demonstration against the country's austerity measures and tax hikes that have left many without jobs.

The country's economy has been struggling to show signs of recovery since the collapse of its once-booming property market in 2008.


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US Economy Misses Forecasts In Last Quarter

The US economy has expanded at a rate below that forecast by economists, the latest official figures have shown.

Although economic growth regained speed in the first quarter, it was not as much as expected, heightening fears the already weakening economy could struggle to handle deep government spending cuts and higher taxes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at 2.5% annualised rate in the first three months of 2013, according to the Commerce Department.

The figure was up on the previous quarter, after growth nearly stalled at 0.4%.

The latest increase, however, missed economists' expectations for a 3% growth pace.

Part of the acceleration in activity reflected farmers' filling up silos after a drought last summer decimated crop output.

Removing inventories, the growth rate was reduced to a tepid 1.5%.


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Govt Courts Buyout Firms Over Royal Mail Deal

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 25 April 2013 | 11.46

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

The Government is courting some of the world's biggest private equity groups about a potentially controversial plan to acquire a major stake in Royal Mail.

I have learnt that advisers to the Coalition have in recent weeks begun reaching out to the buyout firms - which include CVC Capital Partners, the owner of Formula One motor racing - to gauge their interest in an investment in Royal Mail.

Insiders said on Wednesday that the private equity firms being courted also included Carlyle Group, which bought the defence research firm QinetiQ from the then Labour administration in 2003, and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the US-based firm whose British investments include the parent company of Boots.

Lazard and UBS, the investment banks overseeing the discussions with the buyout firms on behalf of ministers, are understood to be informing them that a deal with a private equity investor is "a Plan B route" that would only be formally pursued if a flotation of Royal Mail is ruled out.

Michael Fallon, the Business Minister, has made it clear that the Government has not ruled out any options for injecting private capital into Royal Mail, which it argues is essential as part of efforts to modernise the company's systems and processes.

An initial public offering (IPO), possibly as early as this autumn, has emerged in recent months as the preferred route for ministers. A decision to hand at least 10pc of Royal Mail to employees has now been enshrined in legislation, and would remain the case however the Government elects to offload a major interest in the company.

Any eventual proposal to sell a stake in Royal Mail to a private equity group would, though, inevitably spark opposition from the CWU, the main postal workers' union, which is resisting the move to inject private capital.

The extent of interest among the private equity firms being sounded out about a deal is unclear.

CVC has an extensive track record in the European postal services sector, and is in the advanced stages of planning an IPO of bpost, the Belgian postal group.

The firm, which also owns a stake in the Danish postal service, was also the furthest advanced party in discussions to acquire Royal Mail during the most recent attempt to privatise it in 2009. The then Business Secretary, Lord Mandelson, abandoned that effort when it became clear that a sell-off would not deliver value for taxpayers.

Royal Mail is expected to be valued at between £2bn and £3bn this time around, having transformed its business prospects by shedding jobs, returning to profit in its core letters business, and shedding its historic pension liabilities under a deal with the Government.

Carlyle is also thought likely to be interested because of the significant profits it made on its QinetiQ investment between 2003 and 2007.

Earlier this week, Sky News revealed that a further debate was taking place in Whitehall about whether the 13,000 employees of Royal Mail's European parcels arm, GLS, should be included in a share distribution plan.

A private contractor is being hired to administer an employee share ownership scheme, although it is unclear whether that will involve tens of thousands of postmen and women being handed free shares or being invited to subscribe to discounted shares.

A BIS spokesman said: "No decisions have been taken on the form or timing of the sale of shares in Royal Mail."


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Boeing Profit Soars Despite Dreamliner Issue

Boeing 787 Dreamliner Timeline

Updated: 12:07pm UK, Monday 22 April 2013

The turbulent history of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner:

Apr 22, 2013: The batteries in five All Nippon Airways Dreamliners and two Japan Airlines jets are replaced

Apr 19, 2013: The Federal Aviation Administration approves Boeing's battery modification plans

Apr 3, 2013: Company says it has completed more than half of its battery tests

Mar 25, 2013: Boeing says its first test flight with the new lithium-ion battery went according to plan.

Mar 15, 2013: Boeing unveils modifications to its 787 batteries, saying the Dreamliner is "absolutely safe"

Mar 12, 2013:  FAA approves Boeing's certification plan for a new battery system for the aircraft

Mar 7, 2013: US National Transportation Safety Board says it has failed to identify the cause of the Jan 7 fire

Feb 28, 2013: Boeing says it has found a "permanent" solution to fix problems with Dreamliner batteries

Feb 25, 2013: All Nippon Air (ANA) confirms all of its fleet will remain grounded until the end of May

Feb 8, 2013: Boeing confirms it has sent letters to airlines expecting imminent deliveries of possible delays

Feb 7, 2013: US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) allows limited test flight of the grounded Dreamliner

Feb 5, 2013: Japanese official reveal CT scans of failed batteries does not reveal fire cause

Feb 4, 2013: Boeing requests FAA approval for test flights of grounded model

Jan 30, 2013: Amid revenue loss forecasts of $500m to $5bn, Boeing CEO addresses investors and downplays impact

Jan 28, 2013: Investigators widen battery examination to sub-contractors of lithium ion battery maker GS Yuasa

Jan 21, 2013: Safety officials start probe of lithium ion battery maker GS Yuasa

Jan 19, 2013: Boeing says it is stopping deliveries of the Dreamliner to airlines

Jan 18, 2013: FAA officials arrive in Japan to examine a 787 and its melted battery pack after an ANA emergency landing two days earlier

Jan 17, 2013: The European Aviation Safety Agency,  FAA and Qatar Airways ground Dreamliners under their regulatory control

Jan 16, 2013: Japan Air Lines Co Ltd (JAL) follows suit and suspends Dreamliner flights from Japan over safety concerns

Jan 16, 2013: ANA grounds all 17 of its 787s after four of its aircraft suffer problems

Jan 16, 2013: ANA 787 Dreamliner makes emergency landing in Takamatsu, Japan, after smoke appears in cabin

Jan 11, 2013: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announces a review of the 787 design and systems

Jan 11, 2013: ANA discovers engine oil leak after a domestic flight lands at Miyazaki

Jan 11, 2013: A separate ANA flight to Matsuyama reported a crack appearing in the pilot's window

Jan 9, 2013: ANA cancels a Boeing 787 Dreamliner flight due to a brake problem

Jan 8, 2013: Japan Air Lines (JAL) grounds a jet at Boston Logan International Airport after a 787 leaks 150 litres of fuel

Jan 7, 2013: A fire erupts in a battery pack in another JAL Dreamliner at Boston

Dec 13, 2012: Qatar Airways grounds one of its Dreamliners because of a faulty generator

Dec 5, 2012: The FAA orders inspections of all 787 Dreamliners in service in the US

Dec 4, 2012: A United Airlines 787 is forced to make an emergency landing in New Orleans after a generator fails

July 23, 2012: ANA grounds five Dreamliners due to an engine component issue

Feb 22, 2012: Boeing says around 55 Dreamliners may be affected by a flaw in the fuselage

Oct 26, 2011: The Dreamliner makes its maiden flight with paying passengers on board an ANA jet

Sep 26, 2011: Boeing delivers its first 787 Dreamliner to Japan's ANA, three years late

Jun 23, 2010: Boeing postpones the first flight of the Dreamliner because of a structural flaw

Dec 15, 2009: The passenger jet 787 Dreamliner takes off on its maiden test flight

Apr 9, 2008: Boeing says there will be a revised plan for the first 787 flight and initial deliveries

Dec 11, 2008: Boeing announces further delays due to strike action by machinists Sept-Nov

Oct 19, 2007: Boeing says there will be a six-month delay to deliveries due to assembly issues

Jul 8, 2007: The first assembled 787 goes on display to media, employees and customers

Jul 18, 2006: Boeing says it is making "solid progress" on the 787 Dreamliner programme

Jan 28, 2005: Boeing gives its new commercial airplane an official model designation number - 787

Jan 29, 2003: Boeing announces the launch of a new aircraft called the 7E7


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Investors Deliver New Barclays Pay Warning

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 24 April 2013 | 11.46

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

Leading shareholders in Barclays have delivered a warning that its new management team must accelerate reform of the bank's lavish pay practices or risk a fresh public revolt on the issue.

I have learnt that Aviva Investors and F&C Investments, two of the City's biggest investment institutions, have told Sir David Walker, Barclays' new chairman, that he has only earned their qualified support after his first six months in the job.

While Thursday's annual meeting will not play host to a repeat of last year's widespread rebellion over Barclays' pay policies, the stance of several major investors will fire a renewed warning shot across the bank's bows.

F&C is understood to have decided to abstain on the motion relating to Barclays' remuneration report, reflecting unhappiness about recent disclosures such as the decision to pay more than 400 staff packages of at least £1m in 2012, a year in which Barclays was fined £290m for manipulating the interbank borrowing rate, Libor.

Aviva has decided to support the remuneration report motion at Thursday's AGM but said continued momentum in reforming employees' pay was essential if that backing was to continue.

Speaking to Sky News, David Lis, a senior fund manager at Aviva, said he had met Sir David in recent weeks to discuss the fund manager's ongoing concerns about pay at Barclays, which remains among the most generous payers in the City.

"Under normal circumstances we would have voted against the pay arrangements but we agreed at the meeting with Sir David that if we were to support the pay arrangements we would have to explain to our clients that it was on the basis that we are supportive of the direction that the company is taking on pay and that they would continue to improve," he said.

"If we feel the progress has stalled by the next AGM we would have to review our voting stance. Sir David agreed that this was a reasonable approach."

Last month, Barclays sparked fresh anger when it announced on the day of the Budget that nine top executives were receiving deferred share awards totalling approximately £40m.

Of the recipients, Tom Kalaris, the head of Barclays' wealth management business, and Rich Ricci, boss of its investment bank, were last week ousted by Antony Jenkins, the group's new chief executive.

Chris Lucas, the finance director and another member of the nine-strong group, is also leaving Barclays later this year.

Last year's AGM was one of the key flashpoints of the so-called shareholder spring, which saw revolts over pay at a string of FTSE-100 companies.

Almost one-third of shareholders refused to back the remuneration report, with the equivalent number expected to be much lower this year.

Several leading investors said Sir David, a leading advocate of pay and governance reforms in the banking sector, deserved "the benefit of the doubt" because he had been in the job for such a short period.


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Apple Profits Fall For First Time In 10 Years

Apple has reported its first fall in profits for nearly 10 years - a move that could further threaten its market value.

Analysts expected a tumble of up to 18% in earnings when the company delivered its second quarter trading statement on Tuesday.

In the end, the technology giant announced its profits for the second quarter of the financial year - the three months to the end of March 2013 - were down £1.38bn ($2.1bn) to £6.27bn ($9.56bn), which was what analysts predicted.

Soon after announcing the profit fall, the Apple board cleared the way to buy back $100bn worth of shares by 2015.

It is rumoured that higher component prices and the lower costs of some of its products were what ate into its profit margins.

Stronger competition in the smartphone and tablet markets was also expected to be reflected in the statement.

Weaker demand - largely because of the competition issue - has been blamed for the 40% drop in Apple's stock value since September last year.

But Apple reported strong growth in the sales of many of its products.

The company sold 37.4m iPhones in the quarter, compared to 35.1m in the same quarter a year before.

Apple also sold 19.5m iPads during the quarter, compared to 11.8m in the year before.

But the company admitted it sold just under 4m Macs, compared to 4m in the year-ago quarter.

Apple did their best to make light of the profits fall.

CEO Tim Cook, who took over after Steve Jobs died of cancer in 2011, said: "We are pleased to report record March quarter revenue thanks to continued strong performance of iPhone and iPad.

"Our teams are hard at work on some amazing new hardware, software, and services and we are very excited about the products in our pipeline."

Apple shares fell below the $400 (£262) mark last week for the first time since December 2011.

Despite the fall, the markets responded positively, buoyed by the fact that the results were not worse than expected and off the back of the sales results.

Apple leapt 5.5% in after-hours trading, also boosted by the buy-back plan.

The US firm's forecast had added to market speculation that sales of the iPhone - which make up more than half of Apple's revenue - are slowing more quickly than expected as Samsung and other rivals flood the market with cheaper devices.

A cloud was lifted from the iPhone on Monday night when the US International Trade Commission threw out a Motorola Mobility patent claim that threatened to block the import of some iPhone models into the US.

The commission dismissed a complaint by the Google-owned firm which accused Apple of infringing technology that makes touch screens ignore fingers when people are holding smartphones to their ears for calls.


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Bosses Demand A Better Deal With The EU

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 23 April 2013 | 11.46

Hundreds of British business leaders have called on the coalition to negotiate a better deal for Britain with the European Union.

David Cameron has vowed to claw back powers and then offer voters a choice of staying in the EU in a referendum by the end of 2017 if the Tories return to power in 2015.

The new Business for Britain campaign backs his approach on renegotiation and calls for a cross-party "national drive to renegotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU".

Ocado chairman Sir Stuart Rose and Next boss Lord Wolfson are among the 500 people signed up to the campaign, supported by small firms as well as blue chip companies.

They said: "As business leaders and entrepreneurs responsible for millions of British jobs, we believe that the Government is right to seek a new deal for the EU and for the UK's role in Europe.

"Far from being a threat to our economic interests, a flexible, competitive Europe - with more powers devolved from Brussels - is essential for growth, jobs and access to markets.

Ocado boss Sir Stuart Rose Ocado chairman Sir Stuart Rose is one of the signatories

"We therefore welcome the launch of Business for Britain's campaign for real change in the EU and urge all political parties to join in committing themselves to a national drive to renegotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU."

The group's co-chairman Alan Halsall, boss of pram maker Silver Cross, said: "Business for Britain has been formed because many would have you believe that business doesn't want politicians to try and renegotiate a better deal from Europe.

"But we know that jobs and economic growth depend on a more flexible, looser relationship with the EU. Just as Business for Sterling stopped Britain joining the Euro, Business for Britain will get us this better deal."

JML founder John Mills added: "This campaign is not about taking political sides or backing the right horse - it's about doing what's best for British business.

"I have been a member of the Labour Party for 40 years, others supporting the campaign are supporters of different political parties or none at all.

"The important part is that the signatories to Business for Britain want to show the country that business does not fear Britain's politicians seeking a better deal from Brussels."


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Dreamliner: Boeing Installs New Batteries

Boeing 787 Dreamliner Timeline

Updated: 12:07pm UK, Monday 22 April 2013

The turbulent history of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner:

Apr 22, 2013: The batteries in five All Nippon Airways Dreamliners and two Japan Airlines jets are replaced

Apr 19, 2013: The Federal Aviation Administration approves Boeing's battery modification plans

Apr 3, 2013: Company says it has completed more than half of its battery tests

Mar 25, 2013: Boeing says its first test flight with the new lithium-ion battery went according to plan.

Mar 15, 2013: Boeing unveils modifications to its 787 batteries, saying the Dreamliner is "absolutely safe"

Mar 12, 2013:  FAA approves Boeing's certification plan for a new battery system for the aircraft

Mar 7, 2013: US National Transportation Safety Board says it has failed to identify the cause of the Jan 7 fire

Feb 28, 2013: Boeing says it has found a "permanent" solution to fix problems with Dreamliner batteries

Feb 25, 2013: All Nippon Air (ANA) confirms all of its fleet will remain grounded until the end of May

Feb 8, 2013: Boeing confirms it has sent letters to airlines expecting imminent deliveries of possible delays

Feb 7, 2013: US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) allows limited test flight of the grounded Dreamliner

Feb 5, 2013: Japanese official reveal CT scans of failed batteries does not reveal fire cause

Feb 4, 2013: Boeing requests FAA approval for test flights of grounded model

Jan 30, 2013: Amid revenue loss forecasts of $500m to $5bn, Boeing CEO addresses investors and downplays impact

Jan 28, 2013: Investigators widen battery examination to sub-contractors of lithium ion battery maker GS Yuasa

Jan 21, 2013: Safety officials start probe of lithium ion battery maker GS Yuasa

Jan 19, 2013: Boeing says it is stopping deliveries of the Dreamliner to airlines

Jan 18, 2013: FAA officials arrive in Japan to examine a 787 and its melted battery pack after an ANA emergency landing two days earlier

Jan 17, 2013: The European Aviation Safety Agency,  FAA and Qatar Airways ground Dreamliners under their regulatory control

Jan 16, 2013: Japan Air Lines Co Ltd (JAL) follows suit and suspends Dreamliner flights from Japan over safety concerns

Jan 16, 2013: ANA grounds all 17 of its 787s after four of its aircraft suffer problems

Jan 16, 2013: ANA 787 Dreamliner makes emergency landing in Takamatsu, Japan, after smoke appears in cabin

Jan 11, 2013: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announces a review of the 787 design and systems

Jan 11, 2013: ANA discovers engine oil leak after a domestic flight lands at Miyazaki

Jan 11, 2013: A separate ANA flight to Matsuyama reported a crack appearing in the pilot's window

Jan 9, 2013: ANA cancels a Boeing 787 Dreamliner flight due to a brake problem

Jan 8, 2013: Japan Air Lines (JAL) grounds a jet at Boston Logan International Airport after a 787 leaks 150 litres of fuel

Jan 7, 2013: A fire erupts in a battery pack in another JAL Dreamliner at Boston

Dec 13, 2012: Qatar Airways grounds one of its Dreamliners because of a faulty generator

Dec 5, 2012: The FAA orders inspections of all 787 Dreamliners in service in the US

Dec 4, 2012: A United Airlines 787 is forced to make an emergency landing in New Orleans after a generator fails

July 23, 2012: ANA grounds five Dreamliners due to an engine component issue

Feb 22, 2012: Boeing says around 55 Dreamliners may be affected by a flaw in the fuselage

Oct 26, 2011: The Dreamliner makes its maiden flight with paying passengers on board an ANA jet

Sep 26, 2011: Boeing delivers its first 787 Dreamliner to Japan's ANA, three years late

Jun 23, 2010: Boeing postpones the first flight of the Dreamliner because of a structural flaw

Dec 15, 2009: The passenger jet 787 Dreamliner takes off on its maiden test flight

Apr 9, 2008: Boeing says there will be a revised plan for the first 787 flight and initial deliveries

Dec 11, 2008: Boeing announces further delays due to strike action by machinists Sept-Nov

Oct 19, 2007: Boeing says there will be a six-month delay to deliveries due to assembly issues

Jul 8, 2007: The first assembled 787 goes on display to media, employees and customers

Jul 18, 2006: Boeing says it is making "solid progress" on the 787 Dreamliner programme

Jan 28, 2005: Boeing gives its new commercial airplane an official model designation number - 787

Jan 29, 2003: Boeing announces the launch of a new aircraft called the 7E7


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Ofgem Changes: Warning Over New Energy Tariffs

Written By Unknown on Senin, 22 April 2013 | 11.46

More than three million households could be paying more than they need to under new energy tariffs proposed by Ofgem, according to new research.

The consumer group Which? estimates energy customers could face bills of an extra £55m in total.

 Ofgem's proposed tariff comparison rate aims to simply energy tariffs and allow consumers to compare tariffs across the market.

Consumers will be advised on their best deal based on medium usage of gas and electricity, but only 26% of consumers use this level of energy.

The remaining 74% will be directed to tariffs which could be unsuitable for their usage and would cost them more, Which? claimed.

Which? estimates around 500,000 low energy users, who tend to be on the lowest incomes, could be advised on the wrong tariffs.

Richard Lloyd, executive director at Which?, said: "Rising energy bills remain one of consumers' top financial concerns yet six in 10 of us have never switched supplier as people are left baffled by the vast array of complicated tariffs.

"These current proposals are far too complicated and will fail to achieve their aim of making it easier for people to find the best deal, with three-quarters of people being asked to compare prices that are not based on their energy usage.

"The Government should introduce single unit prices for each energy tariff so people can easily see the best deal for them at a glance. Only then will people have the confidence to switch, injecting much-needed competition into the broken energy market."

But an Ofgem spokesman said the reforms would "deliver a simpler, clearer and fairer energy market for consumers and will make it much easier for consumers to choose the right deal for them".

He added: "Which? is misrepresenting the purpose of the tariff comparison rate and how it fits into the full scope of Ofgem's reform package. The tariff comparison rate acts as a prompt to consumers to take a look at comparative deals.

"The tool is similar to the 'typical APR' used in financial services marketing. But it is partnered with personalised consumption information necessary to make a full and accurate cross market comparison, which every supplier must provide via bills and annual statements. Ofgem's reforms will also see suppliers cheapest deals on your bill.

"We share the desire with Which? to see an at-a-glance tariff comparison. We are taking forward our innovative proposals to put the market cheapest deal on consumers bills - even if it is from a rival supplier - and this will remove the need to compare tariffs altogether. We hope Which? will respond positively to our invite to them to join this next stage of our work."


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Pub Industry Gets New Code Of Conduct

By Gerard Tubb, Sky News Correspondent

Plans to save more pubs from closing as a result of high rents will be published by the Government today.

A new code of practice will be brought in to protect licensees in tied pubs that are owned by the six biggest pub companies.

An independent adjudicator will be appointed with the power to investigate and settle disputes between tenants and their landlord.

The Liberal Democrat MP Greg Mulholland, who leads the all-party save the pub group, has campaigned for the legislation to stop what he calls wholly unacceptable rents.

"The problem here is the large pub companies in this country are based on a business model of taking more than is fair and reasonable in pub profits," he said.

"The code will address that, and the key phrase is the Government have committed that a tied licencee will not be worse off than a free-of-tie licencee."

At the Devonshire Arms in the affluent village of Dore in Sheffield's commuter belt, licencee Tina Gage says the new code can't come soon enough.

The pub is a bustling community hub, but she says her landlord charges £150,000 each year for rent and the drink she sells, leaving her with no salary at all.

"There's no other business in the world where you'd rent a building off somebody and they'd force you to buy their product," she said.

Ten years after taking on the lease she has won a rent reduction after going to court, but says unless she makes a profit soon, this year will be her last behind the bar.

"I've got to try to turn it road this year or I will have to call it a day," she warned.

"And if I go, someone else will come in and take the pub and the same thing will happen to them."


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Fitch Strips UK Of AAA Rating On Debt Outlook

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 21 April 2013 | 11.46

Ratings agency Fitch has stripped the UK of its AAA rating, citing a "weaker economic and fiscal outlook".

The agency placed the UK on an AA+ rating, following Moody's downgrade of UK debt in February.

A Fitch statement said: "The downgrade of the UK's sovereign ratings primarily reflects a weaker economic and fiscal outlook and hence the upward revision to Fitch's medium-term projections for UK budget deficits and government debt."

The downgrade will place further pressure on the Government ahead of next week's first quarter GDP figures, which will reveal if Britain has managed to avoid an unprecedented triple-dip recession.

The agency now expects Government debt to peak at 101% of GDP in 2015-16, only declining gradually in 2017-18. That is worse than its previous forecast of debt peaking at 97% of GDP and declining in 2016-17.

Fitch, which waited until stock markets had closed before announcing the downgrade, had already warned that Government failure to stabilise debt below 100% of GDP and set it on a firm downward path would trigger a downgrade.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, holds up his budget case for the cameras as he stands outside number 11 Downing Street in central London Chancellor George Osborne had pledged to retain the UK's AAA status

The statement said: "Despite the UK's strong fiscal financing flexibility underpinned by its own currency with reserve currency status and the long average maturity of public debt, the fiscal space to absorb further adverse economic and financial shocks is no longer consistent with an AAA rating."

Fitch slashed the UK's growth forecast to 0.8% this year, from its earlier expectation of 1.5%. Next year it expects the UK economy to grow by 1.8%, down from its previous 2% forecast.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund also cut the UK's growth forecast growth from 1% to 0.7% this year and 2014's projection from 1.9% to 1.5%, noting the recovery was "progressing slowly".

IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer said the downgrade was "no surprise" and is likely to have minimal market impact.

"Nevertheless, Fitch's move is another slap in the face for the government - particularly as the Chancellor (George Osborne) made keeping the AAA rating a key focus for the UK," he said.

Fellow ratings agency Standard & Poors held the UK's debt rating steady at AAA earlier this month, but warned over the economy's "negative outlook".


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George Osborne Urged To Rethink Economic Plan

Lagarde's Support For Osborne

Updated: 4:29pm UK, Saturday 20 April 2013

By Ed Conway, Economics Editor

A few weeks ago, eagle-eyed Twitter users would have noticed a rather unusual tweet from one household name to another.

"Welcome to Twitter @George_Osborne," read the public message from @Lagarde, "see you in two weeks at the 2013 IMF/WB spring meetings in Washington, DC".

It was, it turns out, the only personal tweet that Christine Lagarde sent to any other finance minister in the run-up to this past week's Spring Meetings in Washington DC.

This is no coincidence. Lagarde and Osborne really are good friends. They talk regularly (and not just on Twitter); they have a genuinely warm personal and professional relationship.

Osborne was the first major finance minister to endorse Lagarde for her post as managing director of the International Monetary Fund and she, in turn, has always been steadfastly and publicly supportive of his economic policy.

Last summer, Lagarde made a personal appearance at the UK Treasury to unveil the Fund's annual assessment of the British economy, and endorsed the Osborne economic plan.    

She memorably said that when she tried to imagine what the public finances would have looked like without the Chancellor's austerity measures, "I shiver."

Even as the Fund's professional assessment of the UK economy's health turned negative, Lagarde's support for Osborne has remained unwavering.

Earlier this week in Washington, the IMF chief economist, Olivier Blanchard (who, like Lagarde, is French) said Osborne would have to reduce the pace of his spending cuts, adding that the Chancellor was "playing with fire".

The World Economic Outlook said, in black and white, that "greater near-term flexibility in the path of fiscal adjustment" was necessary in the UK – economese for "you need to consider plan B".

And yet when asked about Britain, Lagarde offered a far more equivocal verdict: there was "nothing new" in the Fund's assessment that the UK should be ready to change course if and when economic growth disappointed - though she conceded that "the growth numbers are not particularly good."

This difference in tone has been useful for the Chancellor. When asked in a press briefing about Blanchard's criticism, Osborne quoted Lagarde's comments at length, saying that the chief economist was "just one voice".

However, the reality, according to a range of Fund insiders, is quite the contrary. They point out that the institutional IMF view is far closer to Blanchard's opinion than Lagarde's. That it is Lagarde who is the outlier.

In fact, some Fund officials were privately aghast when they heard Lagarde claim in that press conference that there was "nothing new" in the Fund's position on the UK.

One told me that within the Fund some were muttering that Lagarde's good relationship with the Chancellor - and her consequent efforts to be diplomatic - were undermining the overall message: that Britain must change course.

However, if there were any doubt about the Fund's true position, it has now been laid to rest by Lagarde's deputy, David Lipton. In an interview with Sky News, he said, explicitly, that when it comes to Britain's budget, "the pace of consolidation ought to be reconsidered".

The precise numbers, he signalled, would have to wait until the Fund's official survey begins next month, but the verdict could hardly be clearer.

The intervention is particularly significant given who it has come from. Lipton is not a household name; he is not on Twitter. But not only is he Lagarde's deputy, he is the man who will take her place to unveil the ominous findings of the IMF assessment in London next month. It's enough to make George Osborne shiver.


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