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Global Markets Q&A: What Is Causing The Fall?

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 17 Oktober 2014 | 11.46

By Ed Conway, Economics Editor

Volatile trading has continued into a second day after weak growth reports sparked a big sell-off earlier this week. But what has caused the markets to get jittery?

:: Why are markets plunging?

Good question. As ever with global markets, there's no straightforward answer, but here are three likely factors: first, the economy in the eurozone is doing worse than many expected, so you would expect share prices, which have raced away in recent months, to come down.

Second, with the eurozone facing a possible recession, threatening to drag the rest of the world into a slump, and with China and other emerging economies weaker, it's not clear who will play the role of global economic powerhouse in the coming year.

Third, there are some who fear that the share price gains of the past few years are simply a temporary sugar high fuelled by central banks pumping cash into the system.

Video: Market Sell-Off: What Is To Blame?

:: But the UK is outperforming the G20, isn't it? So are we immune?

As a small, open, highly-financialised economy, Britain is highly sensitive to changes in the international economy – and nowhere more so than the euro area.

Just over 50% of UK goods exports go to the EU, compared with just over 13% to the US and just over 4% to China.

Indeed, economists think if there is a recession in the euro area that could cause annual UK GDP growth, currently more than 3% a year, to drop into negative territory.

:: To what extent has the ebola outbreak contributed to growth and investor concerns?

It has certainly added to the sense of unease, alongside the rise of Islamic State, the growth of extremist political parties in the EU and the prospect of a UK referendum on EU membership.

It is difficult to pinpoint precisely how much influence each factor has on confidence.

:: A core concern worldwide is low inflation. Surely weaker price increases is a good thing for me?

Well strictly speaking higher inflation tends to be good for debtors and bad for savers.

But the worry here is less about investors and more about what low inflation is telling us about the growth prospects of the eurozone.

Twelve of the 28 EU member states have zero inflation or deflation (falling prices), and falling prices (and wages) are usually a sign of an economy which is facing a pay cut and struggling to generate growth.

:: The eurozone looks to be heading towards recession again. Who is to blame?

For the time being, this is a different crisis to the existential crisis we saw a couple of years ago (where it looked like the single currency was about to break apart).

But now the eurozone's long-standing weaknesses (poor demographics, high public spending, unreformed labour markets) are coming back to haunt it.

Video: Market Jitters: US Growth 'To Win'

Those kinds of problems - as rife in France and Italy as other smaller, Mediterranean economies - will take years to resolve, and there is little sign politicians are getting any closer to doing so (certainly in France).

:: Germany is Europe's biggest economy. Why is it now suddenly facing a downturn?

Partly because its neighbours aren't doing all that well. Partly because it has been more affected than most by sanctions on Russia. Partly it has been affected by the relative strength of the euro in the past few years.

But there are also complaints that its government hasn't done enough to get growth going.

The International Monetary Fund, among others, believes it should be spending more on infrastructure to help kick-start economic activity.

:: Greece was the first euro nation to get a bailout during the debt crisis. Why is it still struggling when other nations such as Ireland have recovered?

Actually in some senses it is doing a lot better than expected.

Next year, according to the IMF, Greece will grow faster than any other eurozone economy apart from Ireland.

However, for one thing, unemployment remains eye-wateringly high. Second, and most worrying as far as markets are concerned, the coalition government looks weak, and could conceivably collapse in the coming months.

That brings its capacity to exit its bailout programme into question.

:: What three measures/actions would you suggest to get the world economy moving forward?

As a mere journalist I would tend to leave such judgements to actual policymakers and economists.

However a few ideas that have been suggested include: quantitative easing (eg money creation) from the European Central Bank - though that is fraught with difficulties, notably the refusal of the Bundesbank to co-operate.

Clearly some euro members desperately need to reform their public sectors. But unfortunately there are no easy answers for the current malaise, which is why markets remain so concerned.


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Markets Fall Further As Global Weakness Hits

The sharpest decline in European stocks since 2011 has been followed by a second day of volatile trading as investors flee risk because of global economic weaknesses.

Many stock markets, including the FTSE 100, recovered some ground lost on Wednesday in early Thursday trading - helped by some encouraging corporate results - though jitters soon outweighed the search for bargains.

The FTSE 100 closed down 0.25%, or 15.7 points, at 6,195.9 following a late rally as European Union officials pledged support for Greece.

That followed a 2.8% slump on Wednesday which saw £46bn wiped off the value of the FTSE.

It was a series of weak reports on the health of the two biggest economies in the world that sparked the big sell-off.

Video: Market Jitters: US Growth 'To Win'

Hours after Chinese inflation data disappointed - falling to a near five-year low - it was revealed that US retail sales and producer prices both dropped last month.

The woeful economic signals started a safe-haven rally in US Treasuries while a sharp fall in the dollar lent modest support to oil prices, though Brent crude still shed 1.1% to $82.72-a-barrel as weak demand continued to dominate pricing.

Investors were already worried about the looming end to the US Federal Reserve's programme of quantitative easing (QE) this month before the global growth fears properly surfaced.

It was euro area weakness that dominated trading on Thursday.

The latest inflation figures for the eurozone showed annual growth of just 0.3% across the single currency bloc, doing nothing to dispel fears the European Central Bank's (ECB's) previous rate measures to boost activity had failed to make the grade.

It is facing increasing demands to start a programme of quantitative easing.

The International Monetary Fund recently forecast a 40% chance of eurozone recession though German Chancellor Angela Merkel used a speech on Thursday to urge euro nations not to try and spend their way back to prosperity.

He told an audience Europe must push ahead with efforts to cut public deficits and improve competitiveness, warning that the debt crisis had not yet been overcome and its causes eliminated.

While the UK's own economic performance is outstripping many of its major competitors, the FTSE 100 has hit 15-month lows on the back of the wider world's problems because of the market's exposure to mining and other commodity stocks.

Chancellor George Osborne has acknowledged that the stagnation in the eurozone is a major threat to the UK's recovery.

There is immediate concern about Greece.

Its main stock market fell 10% at one point on Wednesday as it also got to grips with worries its government may collapse next year, putting the country's crucial bailout programme in danger.

Greece's anti-establishment and anti-austerity party, Syriza, has established a solid lead in the polls and the country's 10-year bond yield - the interest rate it pays to service its debts - climbed to 8.9% on Thursday as shares continued to bleed value.


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Jobless Total Back Below Two-Million Mark

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 16 Oktober 2014 | 11.46

The latest unemployment figures show the jobless total below the two-million mark for the first time since 2008.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said unemployment fell by 154,000 in the three months to August to 1.97 million, with the jobless rate falling by more than expected to 6% - its lowest level since October 2008.

But the figures also highlighted continuing concerns about wage growth - measured at just 0.7% on an annual basis between June and August.

It meant that earnings were still failing to keep pace with inflation despite annual living cost increases being calculated on Tuesday at just 1.2%.

The ONS statistics also showed that growth in employment had slowed to its weakest pace since May 2013 though it took the total in work to a new UK record of 30.7 million.

The fall in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in September was the smallest since April last year, down 18,600 month on month.

There are fears the UK's economic recovery risks being damaged by renewed weakness globally - with some economists forecasting a new recession in the UK's biggest market, the eurozone.

Unemployment has fallen by 538,000 over the past year, the biggest annual reduction since records began in 1972.

Prime Minister David Cameron reacted to the figures by tweeting: "The biggest-ever fall in unemployment in history, taking it below two million, is great news. Our plan is working, but there's still much more to do."

The statistics showed progress on the crisis in youth unemployment - which covers 16 to 24-year-olds - easing by 88,000 over the quarter to 733,000.

There were 162,000 unemployed 16-and-17-year-olds, down by 11,000 on the previous three months.

But the number classed as economically inactive increased by 113,000 in the latest quarter to more than nine million - a figure that risks damaging the Government's attempts to bring down the UK's welfare bill.


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FTSE Loses £46bn To Plunge To 15-Month Low

The FTSE 100 has suffered its biggest one-day fall this year, losing around £46bn in value to close down 2.8% (181 points).

While Britain's unemployment rate sank to 6% - its lowest since 2008 - the share index hit its 15-month low as stocks such as commodities and banks saw big drops.

It came amid fears of falling US inflation and weakening global growth.

Sky News' Economics Editor Ed Conway said: "These unemployment numbers are far better than many people had expected, (but) there is a bit of a sting in the tail in that the wage numbers aren't quite as strong as some people had hoped for.

"So wages are still rising below 1%, whereas inflation is going up at an annual rate of 1.2%. People are still feeling the squeeze.

"Look across at the eurozone, 10 of the 28 countries in the European Union are facing deflation, falling prices and even greater numbers are seeing their producer prices - which is often a kind of early warning sign of what's going to happen to inflation - falling."

Pharmaceutical firms also saw falls following AbbVie's decision to reconsider its £34bn ($55bn) takeover bid for Shire.

The plunge began on Wednesday afternoon as soon as trading opened on Wall Street, where the value of stocks also briefly fell by more than 2%.

But US markets bounced back to close well above session lows that had pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into negative territory for the year.

Henk Potts, director of global research at Barclays, said: "The stock market is in a fear mode at the moment on worries about global growth conditions and normalisation of US interest rates.

"But if the sell-off continues, it could prove to be a strong entry point into an asset class that we think will continue to outperform."

Shares in drug maker Shire plummeted 21.9% after AbbVie said it was reassessing its £34bn takeover plan following the US government's recent move to curb deals designed to reduce tax.

The FTSE 350 Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology index fell 6.6% as a result, the index's biggest one-day percentage fall in six years.

John B Smith, senior fund manager at Brown Shipley, said: "It's bad news for the sector, which is struggling to find topline growth and the mergers and acquisitions activity was clearly an area of focus.

"A bid is still possible in the long term, but you are not going to see the higher premiums."


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Inflation Falls To Five-Year Low Of 1.2%

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 15 Oktober 2014 | 11.46

Plunging fuel costs and a supermarket price war are being credited for the latest dip in the annual rate of inflation.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) measured a 1.2% rise in consumer prices in the 12 months to September - its lowest level for a decade if the September 2009 figure is excluded.

The easing from a rate of 1.5% in August was much stronger than economists had predicted and highlighted the extent of the grip on price pressures currently being exerted by major supermarkets.

The sector, which imposed a new round of cuts on petrol pump prices on Tuesday, has been battling an in-store challenge from hard discounters such as Aldi and Lidl.

Price cuts to help keep customers from making a switch have been made at a time of wider price falls in commodities such as wheat and oil - the latter falling to four-year lows.

While cutting their margins does little for supermarket profits, the war for market share is seen as more important with Tesco and Morrisons currently losing ground.

A separate report on Tuesday by the British Retail Consortium suggested warm weather in September helped push retail sales to their weakest level for almost six years.

It said while people delayed buying goods like coats and footwear there was also a significant hit to sales values from the supermarket price war.

While the inflation figure is good news for every family - despite earnings growth still lagging behind inflation - pensioners also learned today how much more they would receive next spring.

The CPI figure means that state pensions will rise by 2.5% or £2.85 a week as the Government's so-called 'triple lock' ensures an increase of whichever is the greater out of average earnings, September's inflation rate or 2.5%.

The ONS said that food and non-alcoholic beverage prices fell by 1.4% year on year, the steepest drop since June 2002 and the fifth month in a row that they have not risen on an annual basis.

It is the longest sustained period of flat or falling food prices since the end of 2004, the body said.

Petrol fell by 0.8p per litre in September compared with the previous month and diesel by 0.7p.

Sea and air fares fell more steeply than at the same time last year while laptops and tablets, computer games, games consoles, books and e-books also contributed to the inflation slowdown.

The ONS said that were it not for the impact of falling food and motor fuel prices - the latter of which were down 6% - the rate of inflation would be around a third higher at 1.6%.

The pound fell sharply after the figures were released as the sharper-than-expected drop meant it was less likely that the Bank of England would need to take action soon to raise the base rate of interest from its five-year low of 0.5%.


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Struggling Balfour Beatty Picks Next Chief

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

Balfour Beatty, the beleaguered construction group, will on Wednesday hand the chief executive of the defence research firm Qinetiq the task of reviving its fortunes.

Sky News has learnt that Leo Quinn is to become the new boss of Balfour Beatty just weeks after it called off takeover talks with rival Carillion.

Mr Quinn, who has been at Qinetiq since November 2009, was formerly the chief executive of De La Rue, the banknote printer, and is respected by City investors.

His appointment is a coup for Balfour Beatty, which has been left reeling by five profit warnings in less than two years and a row with some investors about the sale of its US operation, Parsons Brinckerhoff.

Balfour Beatty is the UK's biggest construction group, but its shares have fallen sharply in the wake of its poor performance.

Many shareholders backed the idea of a merger with Carillion but negotiations between the two companies soured, ending without agreement.

Some analysts believe Carillion will return next year with a fresh proposal but Mr Quinn's appointment may persuade shareholders to give Balfour Beatty the benefit of the doubt.

Steve Marshall, its executive chairman, has said he will make way for a successor once a new chief executive is installed.

It was unclear on Tuesday night whether Qinetiq, which was spun out of the Ministry of Defence a decade ago, would announce Mr Quinn's replacement immediately.

Balfour Beatty and Qinetiq declined to comment.


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Ireland To End Regime Of Cheap Corporation Tax

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 14 Oktober 2014 | 11.46

By David Blevins, Ireland Correspondent

Ireland is poised to signal the end of a controversial scheme that has enabled multinational companies to drastically reduce the amount of tax they pay.

Sources claim the country's finance minister, Michael Noonan, will close the loophole known as "double Irish" when he delivers his country's budget in Dublin later.

Foreign firms have saved billions of euros by transferring income from an operating company in Ireland to another Irish-registered company in an off-shore tax haven.

Apple, Google, Microsoft and Facebook - all of which are thought to have benefited - will be granted a four year window to adapt to any change.

The European Commission has been investigating tax deals between Ireland and Apple and provisionally found that they were generous enough to amount to state aid.

Video: EU Gets Tough On Apple And Ireland

Brussels has urged the Irish Government to end the controversial tax policies or face a full-blown investigation which carries the risk of multi-million euro penalties.

Earlier this month, the chancellor, George Osborne, told the Conservative Party Conference that the UK would crack down on tax strategies deployed by technological companies.

He said: "Some of the biggest companies ... go to extraordinary lengths to pay little or no tax here. We will put a stop to it."

Video: Ireland Exiting Financial Rehab

The G20 has already commissioned the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development to produce a package of tax reforms to end such avoidance schemes.

But one of biggest names in Ireland - the U2 frontman, Bono - has defended the tax laws for "bringing our country the only prosperity we've known".

He said: "We are a tiny little country, we don't have scale, and our version of scale is to be innovative and to be clever.

Video: Tax Expert On EU Apple Accusations

"That's how we got these companies here ... We don't have natural resources, we have to be able to attract people," he told The Observer newspaper.

Ireland's finance minister is also expected to counter anger over proposed water charges and cut the top rate of income tax from 41% to 40%.

The budget is seen as critical, not just for the economic recovery, but in terms of the coalition government's fate in the next general election.

Video: Facebook Profits Triple

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Twitter: Bank To Use Social Media To Send Cash

By Tom Cheshire, Technology Correspondent

One of the largest banks in France will today unveil plans to let its customers - and those of other banks - send money through Twitter.

Groupe BPCE will be the "the first banking group to offer individuals a payment solution where they can transfer money with a simple Tweet", according to CEO Jean-Yves Forel.

It is understood that Twitter has not been involved in creating the service, which was built by Group BPCE's S-Money subsidiary, which has also built mobile and SMS payment systems.

But Olivier Gonzalez, CEO of Twitter France, said: "We warmly welcome this innovation developed by Groupe BPCE and the service it provides to Twitter users in France by integrating its S-Money service into a live, public, conversational dimension characteristic of Twitter."

Twitter is experimenting with its own payment system, known as Twitter Buy, which allows customers to buy products straight from the social media platform. Burberry has signed up.

Video: Twitter's Struggle To Fly High

Technology giants are becoming increasingly interested in online and mobile payments.

Facebook is said to be working on its own payments system, operated through its Messenger app.

And this week Apple Pay is expected to launch, letting users pay for goods and services online and in the physical world using their phone.

In the UK, mobile operator EE has been operating its Cash On Tap app - which works in a similar way to Apple Pay, using Near Field Communication (NFC) for payments including the London Underground - for some months.

Video: Twitter: Tool For Good Or Evil?

Near Field Communication is a form of short-range wireless communication that allows electronic devices, like debit cards or mobile phones, to talk to other computers or networks.

In April, nine banks and building societies adopted Paym, which lets users send money using just a phone number.

Group BPCE has yet to reveal the details, but the service will likely require an extra layer of identification for security - similar to sending money by SMS or on a smartphone app.


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Road Hauliers In Christmas Deliveries Warning

Written By Unknown on Senin, 13 Oktober 2014 | 11.46

By Lisa Dowd, Midlands Correspondent

Hauliers are warning that a national shortage of lorry drivers could hit deliveries to shops and stores in the run-up to Christmas.

They say the cost of obtaining a licence and strict EU rules are putting off many would-be drivers.

"What we're concerned about is that as things start to ramp up around Christmas... there just simply won't be enough drivers available to make all the deliveries that are needed," said Natalie Chapman of the Freight Transport Association.

According to the organisation, 40% of lorry drivers are 50 or over, while just 1% are under the age of 25.

Chris Stevenson, 24, from Bloxwich, told Sky News he is desperate to become a lorry driver.

"It's the freedom of the job really. Seeing a bit of the country, maybe seeing a bit if the world, doing continental driving, you can get around a bit - (it) beats being stuck in one place all the while."

However, three unsuccessful attempts to get his HGV licence have cost him £2,500 so far.

John Heighway, transport manager at Devaneys Haulage, says such costs and the image of the profession have resulted in too few young people wanting to join it.

"It's quite desperate really. We could have enough work for an extra 10 vehicles.

"But we just don't have the drivers to cover it, so we just have to turn work down which is something we don't like doing."

That is great news for agency staff like Martins Svarcs from Latvia, who is working for the West Bromwich-based company.

"I'm working every day, five days a week, nine hours driving a day, so I'm happy."

But even temporary workers cannot fill all the vacant posts.

Hauliers say the problem is being made worse by EU rules which require experienced drivers to undertake further costly training - or face a large fine.

Roy Reynolds, 68, from Wolverhampton had been driving for 41 years and like many others decided to quit.

"Now regulations are coming in where you've got to go back to the classroom.

"I don't feel that I need to do that with the experience that I've gained over a number of years. It just seems pointless, so I decided to retire."


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Osborne Puts Stake In Eurostar Up For Sale

Chancellor George Osborne has said the Government is seeking bidders for its 40% stake in the Eurostar rail service to help reduce Britain's public sector debt pile.

Potential buyers have until the end of the month to make expressions of interests.

The Government said it expects to reach "definitive agreements" in the first quarter of 2015.

The sale forms part of the Government's plan to sell £20bn of corporate and financial asset sales by 2020.

Mr Osborne said: "I am determined that we go on making the decisions to reform the British economy and tackle our debts. So we will proceed with the potential sale of the UK's shareholding in Eurostar today.

Video: Eurostar: The Opposition Responds

"Ensuring that we can deliver the best quality infrastructure for Britain and the best value for money for the taxpayer are key parts of our long term economic plan.

"As part of our aim to achieve £20bn from assets sales by 2020, the sale proceeds would make an important contribution to the task of reducing the public sector debt."

Labour has warned it could follow the Royal Mail privatisation as a "rushed and under valued" sell-off.

Mary Creagh, shadow transport secretary, said: "Eurostar is a national strategic asset that is set to grow and to return increased profits to the UK taxpayer with new routes to Geneva, Lyon, Marseille and Amsterdam.

"After the staggering incompetence of the Royal Mail sale fiasco, which lost taxpayers a billion pounds, people will worry that this is yet another rushed and undervalued sell-off.

"City adviser UBS made millions from Royal Mail and is advising on the Eurostar sale. Lord Myners is still conducting his review into government privatisations after Royal Mail, and ministers should await his report before any sale begins.

Video: Treasury Sec: Why Sell Eurostar?

"The National Audit Office should urgently conduct a value-for-money inquiry before this sale proceeds. We must ensure that taxpayers are not ripped off again by bungling ministers and poor financial advice from the City."

Rail, Maritime and Transport union general secretary Mick Cash said: "This is a gross act of betrayal of the British people by a right wing government hell bent on selling off the family silver regardless of the real cost."

Since services began in 1994, Eurostar has carried over 145 million passengers, with over 10 million in 2013 alone, while sustaining traffic growth every year for the last decade.

The Government put the stake up for sale last December as part of a plan to privatise state assets.

The French state train company SNCF owns 55% of Eurostar and Belgium's SNCB holds 5%.


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FTSE Slips To One-Year Low On Growth Fears

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 12 Oktober 2014 | 11.46

The FTSE has closed at its lowest level in nearly a year with a crisis of confidence over the global recovery.

It came as there were warnings about a triple-dip recession in the Eurozone at the IMF's annual conference in Washington.

Data from Europe's biggest economy, Germany, points towards a serious slowdown, with exports falling 5.8% in August - the biggest monthly fall in five years.

The FTSE 100 Index ended the week 91.9 points lower at 6340.

It leaves London's top 100 listed companies worth £140bn less than they were just over a month ago, and at their lowest ebb since last October.

Video: The Week's Big Business Stories

Worries about the global economy, particularly in Europe and Asia, have been accompanied by a wave of selling in energy and commodity stocks due to a sharp fall in the price of oil.

The Ukraine crisis and spread of the deadly ebola virus have also added to fears.

Wall Street saw its worst week since May 2012, with the Dow Jones industrial average down to 16,544.

Germany's Dax was down 2%, extending its losses for the week to 4%, and France's Cac 40 fell by more than 1% on Friday.

On Wednesday, the IMF downgraded global growth for this year and next, and lowered its assessments of Germany, France and Italy.

However, it kept its UK growth estimate for this year static at 2.7%.

That prompted Chancellor George Osborne to warn: "I'd be the first to say we're at a critical moment because the Eurozone risks slipping back into recession and crisis and that is already having an impact on the UK."

Around 50% of UK exports go to the EU.


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Road Hauliers In Christmas Deliveries Warning

By Lisa Dowd, Midlands Correspondent

Hauliers are warning that a national shortage of lorry drivers could hit deliveries to shops and stores in the run-up to Christmas.

They say the cost of obtaining a licence and strict EU rules are putting off many would-be drivers.

"What we're concerned about is that as things start to ramp up around Christmas... there just simply won't be enough drivers available to make all the deliveries that are needed," said Natalie Chapman of the Freight Transport Association.

According to the organisation, 40% of lorry drivers are 50 or over, while just 1% are under the age of 25.

Chris Stevenson, 24, from Bloxwich, told Sky News he is desperate to become a lorry driver.

"It's the freedom of the job really. Seeing a bit of the country, maybe seeing a bit if the world, doing continental driving, you can get around a bit - (it) beats being stuck in one place all the while."

However, three unsuccessful attempts to get his HGV licence have cost him £2,500 so far.

John Heighway, transport manager at Devaneys Haulage, says such costs and the image of the profession have resulted in too few young people wanting to join it.

"It's quite desperate really. We could have enough work for an extra 10 vehicles.

"But we just don't have the drivers to cover it, so we just have to turn work down which is something we don't like doing."

That is great news for agency staff like Martins Svarcs from Latvia, who is working for the West Bromwich-based company.

"I'm working every day, five days a week, nine hours driving a day, so I'm happy."

But even temporary workers cannot fill all the vacant posts.

Hauliers say the problem is being made worse by EU rules which require experienced drivers to undertake further costly training - or face a large fine.

Roy Reynolds, 68, from Wolverhampton had been driving for 41 years and like many others decided to quit.

"Now regulations are coming in where you've got to go back to the classroom.

"I don't feel that I need to do that with the experience that I've gained over a number of years. It just seems pointless, so I decided to retire."


11.46 | 0 komentar | Read More
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